---
title: "Baggage case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Baggage ($13.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.85% from 15 items with odds, observed 227.63% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Baggage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Baggage

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage?window=all)

Price · $13.99

Advertised RTP · 73.85% · EV $10.33 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 227.63% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

74.0% 193.5% 313.0%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage?window=7d) | 4 | 227.63% ±84.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage) | 4 | 227.63% ±84.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/baggage?window=all) | 4 | 227.63% ±84.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 12,059 | $328 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 298 | $91.26 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $72.80 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $37.70 | 12.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $36.88 | 12.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $24.42 | 17.6% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 12.9% | $8.81 | 11.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Commuter (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-field-tested) | 12.8% | $8.55 | 10.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-leather-field-tested) | 12.2% | $7.48 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-well-worn) | 11.0% | $6.26 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $5.16 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.16 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.09 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.88 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.69 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=baggage)

[USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $13.99 $26.75 1.91x 2026-11-09 10:19 UTC

[XM1014 | Red Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-minimal-wear) [zaken1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/zaken1) $13.99 $38.81 2.77x 2026-11-09 06:35 UTC

[USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) [Mijo55](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mijo55) $13.99 $27.06 1.93x 2026-11-05 22:57 UTC

[Sawed-Off | First Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-field-tested) [Mijo55](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mijo55) $13.99 $34.76 2.48x 2026-11-05 22:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $13.99 | 73.85% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.66% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.50% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.46% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.75% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.08% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.09% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.06% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.12% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.20% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.57% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.56% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.59% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.61% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.59% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.58% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.59% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.54% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.65% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 74.99% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.00% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.61% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.69% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.68% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.70% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% restricted 1.0% mil spec 10.7% Rare 3.5% Uncommon 12.9% Industrial Grade 25.0% Industrial 11.0% Consumer Grade 30.3% #b0c3d9 5.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.85 on average: an expected loss of $26.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt