---
title: "Bitcoin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bitcoin ($24.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.90% from 37 items with odds, observed 80.55% over 206 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Bitcoin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Bitcoin

A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1?window=all)

Price · $24.99

Advertised RTP · 74.90% · EV $18.72 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.55% · 206 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 30 openings · below min

7 days · 183 openings · below min

30 days · 206 openings · below min

since tracking started · 206 openings · below min

70.5% 92.2% 114.0%

**Small sample.** 206 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1?window=24h) | 30 | 92.20% ±21.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1?window=7d) | 183 | 80.32% ±6.84 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1) | 206 | 80.55% ±6.62 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin1?window=all) | 206 | 80.55% ±6.62 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 206 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176,997 | $1,122 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 134,056 | $720 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 117,899 | $641 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 72,102 | $469 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 58,596 | $424 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 58,528 | $423 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 17,280 | $259 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 5,343 | $171 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 4,320 | $159 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 3,755 | $152 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,823 | $119 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,788 | $118 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 1,241 | $104 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,011 | $97.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 968 | $95.78 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 466 | $74.73 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 410 | $71.54 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 375 | $69.40 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 248 | $60.24 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $59.52 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $55.35 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $46.18 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $44.54 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $39.37 | 2.9% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $37.95 | 3.1% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $37.83 | 3.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $36.97 | 3.2% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $35.07 | 3.6% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $33.40 | 3.9% | 1 | 4.5 | 0.22× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $33.32 | 3.9% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $32.05 | 4.2% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $29.65 | 4.8% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $28.75 | 5.0% | 1 | 6.7 | 0.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $23.75 | 6.8% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $19.71 | 9.0% | 0 | 17.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 23.8% | $11.93 | 15.2% | 1 | 49.0 | 0.02× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 36.9% | $8.62 | 17.0% | 1 | 76.0 | 0.01× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bitcoin1)

[Five-SeveN | Fowl Play weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play) [Rick](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rick) $24.99 $19.57 0.78x 2026-11-11 08:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot) [Rick](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rick) $24.99 $30.47 1.22x 2026-11-11 08:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot) [ЗахарЗубрайло](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%97%D1%83%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB%D0%BE) $24.99 $30.47 1.22x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [ЗахарЗубрайло](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%97%D1%83%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB%D0%BE) $24.99 $11.97 0.48x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast) [Rick](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rick) $24.99 $44.54 1.78x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Mecha Industries weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries) [Rick](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rick) $24.99 $23.49 0.94x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $24.99 $11.95 0.48x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $24.99 $29.33 1.17x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $24.99 $11.95 0.48x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $24.99 $9.60 0.38x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $24.99 | 74.90% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $24.99 | 75.42% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 76.8% covert 11.8% sunny 0.0% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% red 0.5% Covert 0.8% pink 3.1% Immortal 1.6% Ancient 5.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.90 on average: an expected loss of $25.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt