---
title: "Bitcoin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bitcoin ($60.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.33% from 35 items with odds, observed 80.31% over 79 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Bitcoin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Bitcoin

A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4?window=all)

Price · $60.99

Advertised RTP · 76.33% · EV $46.56 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.31% · 79 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 9 openings · below min

7 days · 72 openings · below min

30 days · 79 openings · below min

since tracking started · 79 openings · below min

38.5% 68.8% 99.0%

**Small sample.** 79 openings and 25.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4?window=24h) | 9 | 68.89% ±29.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4?window=7d) | 72 | 77.11% ±10.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4) | 79 | 80.31% ±10.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin4?window=all) | 79 | 80.31% ±10.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52,144 | $1,074 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 18,957 | $716 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 15,645 | $667 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 6,110 | $478 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,853 | $441 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 4,233 | $421 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 1,044 | $259 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 358 | $177 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 254 | $156 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 228 | $150 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $122 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $118 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $105 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $101 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $93.88 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $79.15 | 3.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $74.35 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $72.26 | 3.8% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $72.12 | 3.8% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $61.12 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $60.93 | 4.3% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $51.77 | 4.6% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $50.64 | 4.6% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $44.54 | 4.7% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $38.24 | 4.5% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $37.82 | 4.5% | 1 | 4.7 | 0.21× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $37.63 | 4.5% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $37.19 | 4.5% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $34.37 | 4.3% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $33.46 | 4.3% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $32.71 | 4.2% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $31.85 | 4.1% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $30.47 | 4.0% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $29.25 | 3.9% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $23.49 | 3.1% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bitcoin4)

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler) [pavapeva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pavapeva) $60.99 $70.45 1.16x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC

[P250 | Apep's Curse weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse) [keDo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/keDo) $60.99 $38.09 0.62x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

[AWP | Redline weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline) [keDo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/keDo) $60.99 $37.16 0.61x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream) [keDo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/keDo) $60.99 $32.83 0.54x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company) [keDo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/keDo) $60.99 $36.32 0.60x 2026-11-10 23:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot) [keDo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/keDo) $60.99 $30.53 0.50x 2026-11-10 23:53 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed) [keDo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/keDo) $60.99 $64.87 1.06x 2026-11-10 23:52 UTC

[FAMAS | Mecha Industries weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries) [b](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/b) $60.99 $23.44 0.38x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast) [b](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/b) $60.99 $44.43 0.73x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[FAMAS | Mecha Industries weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries) [bereza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/bereza) $60.99 $23.69 0.39x 2026-11-10 10:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $60.99 | 76.33% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $60.99 | 76.82% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $60.99 | 77.31% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $60.99 | 77.73% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $60.99 | 77.41% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $60.99 | 77.41% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $60.99 | 77.69% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 15.3% covert 44.0% sunny 0.0% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.4% rare 0.4% red 4.3% Covert 6.7% pink 11.1% Immortal 5.6% Ancient 12.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.33 on average: an expected loss of $23.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt