--- title: "Bitcoin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bitcoin ($4.59) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.96% from 39 items with odds, observed 85.23% over 1,803 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Bitcoin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Bitcoin A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5?window=all) Price · $4.59 Advertised RTP · 76.96% · EV $3.53 from 39 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.23% · 1,803 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 34.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.69% ±12.77 164 openings 7 days · 84.30% ±4.15 1,570 openings 30 days · 85.23% ±3.88 1,803 openings since tracking started · 85.23% ±3.88 1,803 openings 76.5% 90.8% 105.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.35% – 89.11%, 1,803 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5?window=24h) | 164 | 91.69% ±12.8 | +2.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5?window=7d) | 1,570 | 84.30% ±4.15 | +3.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5) | 1,803 | 85.23% ±3.88 | +4.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin5?window=all) | 1,803 | 85.23% ±3.88 | +4.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,867 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 150,399 | $234 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 111,736 | $175 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 99,878 | $161 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 94,401 | $156 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64,846 | $126 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58,079 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 37,626 | $99.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35,473 | $96.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 35,394 | $96.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 20,566 | $78.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,105 | $77.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,042 | $69.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 14,824 | $69.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 11,167 | $62.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,115 | $60.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 7,898 | $55.63 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 4,256 | $44.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,236 | $44.86 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 2,854 | $39.19 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 2,659 | $38.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 2,572 | $37.82 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 2,488 | $37.40 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 2,114 | $35.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,826 | $33.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 1,810 | $33.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 1,672 | $32.66 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,298 | $29.96 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 1,131 | $28.59 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 750 | $24.84 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 463 | $21.05 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $12.12 | 3.5% | 7 | 19.2 | 0.36× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $8.62 | 6.1% | 12 | 47.0 | 0.26× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $6.53 | 8.9% | 19 | 90.2 | 0.21× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 11.4% | $4.10 | 13.2% | 53 | 212.5 | 0.25× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 13.3% | $3.65 | 13.7% | 33 | 248.4 | 0.13× | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 14.1% | $3.47 | 13.9% | 62 | 263.4 | 0.24× | | [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 14.2% | $3.45 | 13.9% | 68 | 264.8 | 0.26× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 19.5% | $1.85 | 10.2% | 42 | 363.2 | 0.12× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 18.2% | $1.38 | 7.1% | 94 | 339.6 | 0.28× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bitcoin5) [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) [CS2SKINS.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CS2SKINS.GIFT) $4.59 $3.39 0.74x 2026-11-11 06:41 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [Doroty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Doroty) $4.59 $1.71 0.37x 2026-11-11 06:34 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $4.59 $1.71 0.37x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $4.59 $1.71 0.37x 2026-11-11 06:25 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $4.59 $4.15 0.90x 2026-11-11 06:25 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $4.59 $4.15 0.90x 2026-11-11 06:25 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $4.59 $3.39 0.74x 2026-11-11 06:25 UTC [P250 | Visions weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions) [Mirange](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mirange) $4.59 $3.46 0.75x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC [P250 | Visions weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $4.59 $3.46 0.75x 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC [P250 | Franklin weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin) [Ice\_tea](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ice_tea) $4.59 $1.99 0.43x 2026-11-11 01:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.59 | 76.96% | 39 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.59 | 76.94% | 39 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.59 | 77.27% | 39 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.59 | 76.92% | 38 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $4.59 | 76.94% | 39 | | 3 Nov, 04:13 UTC | $4.59 | 77.53% | 39 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% covert 0.3% classified 4.0% red 0.0% Covert 0.0% pink 14.2% Immortal 0.0% Ancient 0.1% #d32ee6 4.8% Legendary 57.1% Rare 19.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.96 on average: an expected loss of $23.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt