--- title: "Bitcoin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bitcoin ($16.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.96% from 39 items with odds, observed 71.25% over 325 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Bitcoin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Bitcoin A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6?window=all) Price · $16.99 Advertised RTP · 73.96% · EV $12.56 from 39 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.25% · 325 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 69.23% ±8.11 309 openings 30 days · 71.25% ±7.90 325 openings since tracking started · 71.25% ±7.90 325 openings 12.0% 57.7% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6?window=24h) | 10 | 57.83% ±45.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6?window=7d) | 309 | 69.23% ±8.11 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6) | 325 | 71.25% ±7.90 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin6?window=all) | 325 | 71.25% ±7.90 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188,155 | $1,106 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 163,660 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 159,056 | $692 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 112,500 | $478 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 99,349 | $438 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 98,954 | $437 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 94,052 | $423 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 11,819 | $175 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 9,606 | $162 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 7,630 | $150 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,514 | $125 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,878 | $119 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 2,531 | $103 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,185 | $97.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,129 | $96.82 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 1,092 | $77.22 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,045 | $76.07 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 802 | $69.55 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 735 | $67.55 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 547 | $61.08 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 489 | $58.79 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 405 | $55.17 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 398 | $54.85 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 221 | $44.86 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $40.34 | 2.0% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $38.31 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $38.02 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $37.82 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $37.46 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $33.99 | 2.7% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $33.43 | 2.8% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $31.52 | 3.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $29.30 | 3.6% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $28.53 | 3.7% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $24.99 | 4.7% | 1 | 7.9 | 0.13× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $17.28 | 8.6% | 5 | 20.6 | 0.24× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 13.8% | $12.22 | 13.4% | 11 | 45.6 | 0.24× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 25.7% | $8.63 | 17.7% | 18 | 85.2 | 0.21× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 39.8% | $5.82 | 18.4% | 20 | 131.8 | 0.15× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bitcoin6) [M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $11.95 0.70x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $6.05 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $6.05 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $6.05 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $6.05 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $9.10 0.54x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $6.05 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $6.05 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $11.95 0.70x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot) [Санёчек](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%91%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA) $16.99 $28.95 1.70x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $16.99 | 73.96% | 39 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $16.99 | 74.33% | 39 | | 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $16.99 | 74.08% | 39 | | 3 Nov, 09:10 UTC | $16.99 | 74.36% | 39 | | 3 Nov, 07:37 UTC | $16.99 | 74.60% | 39 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 49.0% covert 5.5% sunny 0.0% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% red 0.2% Covert 0.4% pink 1.5% Immortal 0.8% Ancient 2.8% #d32ee6 39.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.96 on average: an expected loss of $26.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt