---
title: "Bitcoin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bitcoin ($24.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.40% from 38 items with odds, observed 72.77% over 233 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Bitcoin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Bitcoin

A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7?window=all)

Price · $24.99

Advertised RTP · 75.40% · EV $18.84 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.77% · 233 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 72.60% ±7.94 221 openings

30 days · 72.77% ±7.74 233 openings

since tracking started · 72.77% ±7.74 233 openings

48.0% 64.5% 81.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7?window=24h) | 57 | 64.16% ±15.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7?window=7d) | 221 | 72.60% ±7.94 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7) | 233 | 72.77% ±7.74 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin7?window=all) | 233 | 72.77% ±7.74 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 236 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175,973 | $1,105 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 134,924 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 128,139 | $690 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 74,466 | $478 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 63,021 | $439 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 62,583 | $438 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 13,084 | $234 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 5,641 | $175 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 4,475 | $161 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 4,023 | $156 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,195 | $127 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,871 | $120 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 1,184 | $103 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 994 | $96.77 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 994 | $96.77 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 533 | $78.35 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 522 | $77.78 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 375 | $69.50 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 334 | $66.83 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 292 | $63.84 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | $58.77 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $55.78 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $44.84 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $43.78 | 2.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $39.63 | 2.8% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $38.46 | 3.0% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $37.82 | 3.1% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $37.36 | 3.2% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $36.10 | 3.4% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $33.53 | 3.8% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $32.64 | 4.0% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $32.26 | 4.1% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $29.27 | 4.8% | 0 | 7.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $28.58 | 5.0% | 0 | 7.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $25.02 | 6.3% | 0 | 11.1 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 10.3% | $18.17 | 9.9% | 0 | 24.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 23.3% | $11.98 | 14.8% | 0 | 55.0 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 36.0% | $8.62 | 16.5% | 0 | 85.1 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bitcoin7)

[P250 | Apep's Curse weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $24.99 $36.46 1.46x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:26 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:25 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [N](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/N) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [N](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/N) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [N](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/N) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[P90 | Shapewood weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood) [N](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/N) $24.99 $9.30 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) [N](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/N) $24.99 $11.66 0.47x 2026-11-11 11:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $24.99 | 75.40% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 05:25 UTC | $24.99 | 75.69% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 15:56 UTC | $24.99 | 75.75% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | $24.99 | 76.09% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 02:07 UTC | $24.99 | 76.09% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 66.1% covert 12.2% epic 0.0% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% red 0.5% Covert 0.8% pink 3.0% Immortal 1.6% Ancient 5.4% #d32ee6 10.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.40 on average: an expected loss of $24.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt