---
title: "Bitcoin case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bitcoin ($3.89) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.62% from 45 items with odds, observed 83.13% over 2,210 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Bitcoin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Bitcoin

A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8?window=all)

Price · $3.89

Advertised RTP · 75.62% · EV $2.94 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.13% · 2,210 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.55% ±14.31 257 openings

7 days · 80.44% ±6.95 1,080 openings

30 days · 83.13% ±2.80 2,210 openings

since tracking started · 83.13% ±2.80 2,210 openings

69.5% 84.5% 99.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.52% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.33% – 85.92%, 2,210 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8?window=24h) | 257 | 84.55% ±14.3 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8?window=7d) | 1,080 | 80.44% ±6.95 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8) | 2,210 | 83.13% ±2.80 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bitcoin8?window=all) | 2,210 | 83.13% ±2.80 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,745 | $1,078 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 199,123 | $714 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 198,604 | $611 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 196,873 | $465 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 196,221 | $436 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 195,759 | $420 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 195,672 | $417 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 155,337 | $177 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 140,657 | $156 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 137,474 | $152 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107,459 | $123 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103,613 | $120 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 83,640 | $105 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70,104 | $95.22 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 65,411 | $91.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 46,209 | $78.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41,630 | $74.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 37,958 | $72.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,005 | $68.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 23,810 | $59.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23,513 | $59.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 17,368 | $53.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 15,402 | $51.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,427 | $44.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 7,574 | $39.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 6,575 | $37.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 6,571 | $37.82 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 6,266 | $37.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 5,846 | $36.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 4,389 | $32.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 4,163 | $32.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 4,022 | $31.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 3,528 | $30.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 3,132 | $29.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 1,637 | $23.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 912 | $19.30 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 224 | $11.95 | 1.8% | 1 | 9.8 | 0.10× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $9.60 | 2.7% | 2 | 18.4 | 0.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $6.05 | 6.1% | 5 | 65.2 | 0.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.06 | 10.8% | 24 | 173.3 | 0.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 10.3% | $3.58 | 12.5% | 19 | 227.3 | 0.08× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 10.9% | $3.48 | 12.9% | 24 | 240.9 | 0.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 11.4% | $3.40 | 13.2% | 23 | 252.0 | 0.09× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 25.8% | $1.99 | 17.5% | 17 | 570.2 | 0.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 29.1% | $1.73 | 17.1% | 31 | 643.3 | 0.05× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bitcoin8)

[Glock-18 | Vogue weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue) [Mamute Pequenino](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mamute%20Pequenino) $3.89 $3.46 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration) [Mamute Pequenino](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mamute%20Pequenino) $3.89 $3.39 0.87x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [Luka Sion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luka%20Sion) $3.89 $1.74 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[P250 | Franklin weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin) [Luka Sion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luka%20Sion) $3.89 $1.94 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC

[P250 | Franklin weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin) [Luka Sion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luka%20Sion) $3.89 $1.94 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [Luka Sion](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luka%20Sion) $3.89 $4.15 1.07x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[P250 | Franklin weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $3.89 $1.94 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $3.89 $1.74 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $3.89 $1.74 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build) [Itachi Uchiha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Itachi%20Uchiha) $3.89 $1.74 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.89 | 75.62% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.89 | 76.71% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 27.3% covert 0.1% sunny 0.0% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% red 0.0% Covert 0.0% pink 10.9% Immortal 0.0% Ancient 0.1% #d32ee6 3.0% Legendary 29.5% Rare 29.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.62 on average: an expected loss of $24.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt