---
title: "Черная коллекция case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Черная коллекция ($2.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.99% from 34 items with odds, observed 62.20% over 1,322 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Черная коллекция](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Черная коллекция

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection?window=all)

Price · $2.09

Advertised RTP · 62.99% · EV $1.32 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 62.20% · 1,322 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 59.90% ±11.92 104 openings

7 days · 62.84% ±3.55 1,197 openings

30 days · 62.20% ±3.40 1,322 openings

since tracking started · 62.20% ±3.40 1,322 openings

47.5% 60.0% 72.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection?window=24h) | 104 | 59.90% ±11.9 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection?window=7d) | 1,197 | 62.84% ±3.55 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection) | 1,322 | 62.20% ±3.40 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blackcollection?window=all) | 1,322 | 62.20% ±3.40 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,322 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193,453 | $171 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 173,109 | $103 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 146,308 | $77.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100,491 | $55.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100,008 | $55.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 90,960 | $51.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52,680 | $39.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 45,833 | $36.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 37,089 | $33.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 16,030 | $24.41 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,859 | $19.76 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 4,150 | $15.20 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,068 | $15.09 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,229 | $12.28 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 1 in 1,881 | $11.59 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,120 | $9.71 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.39× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 1,057 | $9.51 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.40× |
| [Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 719 | $8.33 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.63× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 482 | $7.26 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 459 | $7.13 | 1.2% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $5.17 | 2.1% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $4.79 | 2.4% | 19 | 8.8 | 2.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $3.85 | 3.5% | 28 | 15.8 | 1.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $3.28 | 4.5% | 0 | 23.7 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $2.90 | 5.3% | 39 | 32.0 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.61 | 6.1% | 22 | 40.5 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.74 | 8.9% | 57 | 89.2 | 0.64× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.46 | 9.6% | 74 | 114.7 | 0.64× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.38 | 9.7% | 0 | 122.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) | 12.7% | $0.90 | 8.7% | 140 | 168.1 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $0.87 | 8.5% | 265 | 170.0 | 1.56× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 12.9% | $0.84 | 8.3% | 222 | 171.1 | 1.30× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.81 | 8.0% | 117 | 172.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 13.1% | $0.76 | 7.6% | 259 | 173.4 | 1.49× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=blackcollection)

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [feel.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/feel.) $2.09 $0.76 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [zoom](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/zoom) $2.09 $0.76 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) [Mommy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mommy) $2.09 $1.46 0.70x 2026-11-11 16:11 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [QCOLD13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/QCOLD13) $2.09 $0.84 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [f1rya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/f1rya) $2.09 $0.84 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [Men](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Men) $2.09 $0.84 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [Maestro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Maestro) $2.09 $0.76 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [vinbenzin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/vinbenzin) $2.09 $0.76 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) [хаус](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%81) $2.09 $1.46 0.70x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [ϟ smaker ϟ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%CF%9F%20smaker%20%CF%9F) $2.09 $0.87 0.42x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.09 | 62.99% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 62.84% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 62.67% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 62.62% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 62.96% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 63.24% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 63.21% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 63.15% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 63.21% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 63.29% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 63.68% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 63.68% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 63.62% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 63.63% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.09 | 63.69% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.09 | 63.53% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.59% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.62% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.62% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.66% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.67% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 63.61% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.67% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.09 | 64.00% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.09 | 63.99% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.89% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.63% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.72% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.09 | 63.74% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.09 | 63.65% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 0.7% classified 0.3% mil spec 22.0% #d32ee6 0.0% Restricted 0.1% milspec 0.2% #8847ff 0.2% Mythical 27.2% Uncommon 1.8% violet 15.4% Mil Spec Grade 3.1% Rare 19.8% Industrial Grade 9.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 63.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.99 on average: an expected loss of $37.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt