---
title: "BLAST Bounty 2026 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BLAST Bounty 2026 ($0.93) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.33% from 28 items with odds, observed 80.59% over 427 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [BLAST Bounty 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · BLAST Bounty 2026

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026?window=all)

Price · $0.93

Advertised RTP · 80.33% · EV $0.75 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.59% · 427 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 81.55% ±9.35 231 openings

30 days · 80.59% ±6.94 427 openings

since tracking started · 80.59% ±6.94 427 openings

71.5% 81.5% 91.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026?window=7d) | 231 | 81.55% ±9.35 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026) | 427 | 80.59% ±6.94 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastbounty2026?window=all) | 427 | 80.59% ±6.94 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 427 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 9,598 | $27.66 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,105 | $20.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 8,760 | $18.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 8,456 | $16.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 7,217 | $13.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 6,771 | $12.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 6,613 | $11.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,563 | $9.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 1,637 | $5.54 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 1,580 | $5.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 848 | $4.29 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 533 | $3.62 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 178 | $2.42 | 1.8% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $2.32 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $1.78 | 3.0% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.09 | 5.8% | 10 | 16.9 | 0.59× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.08 | 5.9% | 29 | 17.3 | 1.68× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1.07 | 5.9% | 17 | 17.7 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.07 | 5.9% | 17 | 17.6 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.95 | 6.6% | 13 | 22.2 | 0.58× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 19 | $0.95 | 6.6% | 24 | 22.1 | 1.09× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.80 | 7.4% | 29 | 29.4 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.75 | 7.6% | 29 | 32.2 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.59 | 7.9% | 37 | 42.9 | 0.86× |
| [Charm \| Bomb Tag charm · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-bomb-tag) | 10.0% | $0.59 | 7.9% | 56 | 42.8 | 1.31× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.52 | 7.7% | 49 | 47.4 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-well-worn) | 12.2% | $0.43 | 7.1% | 0 | 52.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 12.6% | $0.37 | 6.2% | 43 | 53.6 | 0.80× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=blastbounty2026)

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) [Laph1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Laph1) $0.93 $0.52 0.56x 2026-11-06 03:11 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) [Papatinho69](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Papatinho69) $0.93 $0.90 0.97x 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC

[Charm | Bomb Tag charm · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-bomb-tag) [Papatinho69](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Papatinho69) $0.93 $0.60 0.65x 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) [Papatinho69](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Papatinho69) $0.93 $0.52 0.56x 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) [Papatinho69](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Papatinho69) $0.93 $1.02 1.10x 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC

[Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) [Papatinho69](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Papatinho69) $0.93 $1.08 1.16x 2026-11-06 01:19 UTC

[Charm | Bomb Tag charm · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-bomb-tag) [mulashka228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/mulashka228) $0.93 $0.60 0.65x 2026-11-06 01:14 UTC

[Charm | Bomb Tag charm · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-bomb-tag) [Rubz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rubz) $0.93 $0.59 0.63x 2026-11-06 00:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid) [Rubz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rubz) $0.93 $0.40 0.43x 2026-11-06 00:07 UTC

[Charm | Bomb Tag charm · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-bomb-tag) [MaHTuKoPa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MaHTuKoPa) $0.93 $0.59 0.63x 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.93 | 80.33% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.28% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.93 | 79.92% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.01% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.04% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.93 | 80.04% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.93 | 80.12% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $0.93 | 80.09% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 07:05 UTC | $0.93 | 80.17% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 05:18 UTC | $0.93 | 80.25% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 23:08 UTC | $0.93 | 80.10% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.93 | 80.38% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 15:56 UTC | $0.93 | 80.26% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | $0.93 | 80.25% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 09:10 UTC | $0.93 | 80.27% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $0.93 | 80.54% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 07:37 UTC | $0.93 | 80.65% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | $0.93 | 80.58% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 04:13 UTC | $0.93 | 80.60% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 02:07 UTC | $0.93 | 80.60% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | $0.93 | 80.68% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.58% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% industrial 0.0% classified 0.9% Legendary 0.2% uncommon 0.1% Mythical 29.3% #8847ff 22.6% violet 23.5% restricted 18.3% mil spec 5.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.33 on average: an expected loss of $19.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt