---
title: "BLAST Open Porto 2026 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "BLAST Open Porto 2026 ($0.61) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 81.03% from 29 items with odds, observed 87.28% over 705 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [BLAST Open Porto 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · BLAST Open Porto 2026

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026?window=all)

Price · $0.61

Advertised RTP · 81.03% · EV $0.49 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.28% · 705 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 58 openings · below min

7 days · 87.09% ±6.19 587 openings

30 days · 87.28% ±5.72 705 openings

since tracking started · 87.28% ±5.72 705 openings

77.0% 96.5% 116.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026?window=24h) | 58 | 96.44% ±18.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026?window=7d) | 587 | 87.09% ±6.19 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026) | 705 | 87.28% ±5.72 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/blastporto2026?window=all) | 705 | 87.28% ±5.72 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 706 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 9,722 | $19.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 9,696 | $18.69 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 9,011 | $12.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 8,176 | $9.71 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 7,079 | $7.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,690 | $6.45 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 5,335 | $6.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 4,952 | $5.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 4,318 | $5.36 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 1,708 | $3.46 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 1,068 | $2.88 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 846 | $2.64 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 624 | $2.36 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 298 | $1.80 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 269 | $1.74 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $1.12 | 2.8% | 15 | 8.7 | 1.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $1.05 | 3.2% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.05 | 3.1% | 17 | 10.3 | 1.65× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.95 | 3.7% | 12 | 13.6 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.75 | 5.2% | 10 | 24.2 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.64 | 6.3% | 57 | 34.4 | 1.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.55 | 7.4% | 63 | 47.2 | 1.34× |
| [Charm \| Dr. Brian charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-dr-brian) | 1 in 14 | $0.53 | 7.6% | 62 | 49.9 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.51 | 7.8% | 63 | 53.3 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.44 | 8.6% | 43 | 68.8 | 0.63× |
| [Charm \| Hang Loose charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hang-loose) | 12.0% | $0.38 | 9.2% | 84 | 85.0 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 12.8% | $0.36 | 9.3% | 76 | 90.1 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 13.4% | $0.34 | 9.3% | 37 | 94.3 | 0.39× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 15.1% | $0.30 | 9.2% | 51 | 106.9 | 0.48× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=blastporto2026)

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) [Dejvo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Dejvo) $0.61 $0.44 0.72x 2026-11-11 20:11 UTC

[Charm | Dr. Brian charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-dr-brian) [Егорёк)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%91%D0%BA%29) $0.61 $0.54 0.89x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [gggdanli9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/gggdanli9) $0.61 $0.54 0.89x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti) [kl1zix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kl1zix) $0.61 $0.30 0.50x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [Mr\_KoT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr_KoT) $0.61 $0.56 0.92x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Mr\_KoT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr_KoT) $0.61 $0.51 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC

[Charm | Hang Loose charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hang-loose) [Mr\_KoT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr_KoT) $0.61 $0.40 0.66x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [Mr\_KoT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr_KoT) $0.61 $0.75 1.23x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Mr\_KoT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr_KoT) $0.61 $0.51 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC

[Charm | Hang Loose charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hang-loose) [Mr\_KoT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr_KoT) $0.61 $0.40 0.66x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.61 | 81.03% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.61 | 80.68% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.61 | 80.59% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.61 | 80.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.61 | 80.89% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.61 | 81.22% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.61 | 81.22% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.61 | 81.14% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.61 | 81.28% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.61 | 81.32% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.61 | 81.83% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.61 | 81.74% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.61 | 81.70% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.61 | 81.79% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.61 | 81.83% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.61 | 81.72% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.61 | 81.76% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.61 | 81.74% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.61 | 81.79% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.61 | 81.79% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.61 | 81.84% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.61 | 81.84% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.61 | 81.84% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.61 | 82.24% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.61 | 82.22% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.61 | 82.11% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.61 | 81.80% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.61 | 81.87% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.61 | 81.81% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.61 | 81.91% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.2% Ancient 0.0% pink 0.1% restricted 12.6% #d32ce6 0.0% Legendary 0.1% violet 1.6% Mythical 6.4% Rare 0.4% #8847ff 40.5% #4b69ff 9.7% blue 28.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.03 on average: an expected loss of $18.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt