---
title: "Синяя коллекция case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Синяя коллекция ($0.05) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 52.16% from 33 items with odds, observed 162.26% over 895 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Синяя коллекция](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Синяя коллекция

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection?window=all)

Price · $0.05

Advertised RTP · 52.16% · EV $0.03 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 162.26% · 895 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 155.15% ±8.37 125 openings

7 days · 166.97% ±3.67 701 openings

30 days · 162.26% ±3.29 895 openings

since tracking started · 162.26% ±3.29 895 openings

52.0% 111.8% 171.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 53.17% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (158.97% – 165.54%, 895 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection?window=24h) | 125 | 155.15% ±8.37 | +24.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection?window=7d) | 701 | 166.97% ±3.67 | +60.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection) | 895 | 162.26% ±3.29 | +65.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bluecollection?window=all) | 895 | 162.26% ±3.29 | +65.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 896 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 193,015 | $3.22 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187,985 | $2.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-well-worn) | 1 in 177,375 | $2.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 173,605 | $1.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 111,461 | $1.15 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 104,717 | $1.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 101,023 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99,936 | $1.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Pocket Pop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-pop) | 1 in 59,172 | $0.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) | 1 in 47,696 | $0.72 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 15,153 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,932 | $0.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 9,917 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 8,358 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,823 | $0.35 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M249 \| Hypnosis (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-hypnosis-field-tested) | 1 in 4,325 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,491 | $0.28 | 0.3% | 7 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) | 1 in 2,842 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,251 | $0.24 | 0.4% | 9 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $0.12 | 1.5% | 25 | 3.1 | 8.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 151 | $0.09 | 2.4% | 60 | 5.9 | 10.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.09 | 2.8% | 62 | 7.8 | 7.94× |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $0.08 | 3.2% | 91 | 9.3 | 9.75× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.07 | 4.3% | 181 | 15.3 | 11.83× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.06 | 5.1% | 298 | 20.1 | 14.85× |
| [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.05 | 6.8% | 0 | 32.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.05 | 7.0% | 0 | 33.8 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.05 | 7.2% | 0 | 36.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 11.4% | $0.03 | 11.8% | 0 | 102.3 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 16.3% | $0.02 | 11.9% | 0 | 146.1 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) | 17.1% | $0.02 | 11.8% | 0 | 153.3 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) | 17.6% | $0.02 | 11.5% | 0 | 157.6 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) | 19.1% | $0.01 | 10.2% | 0 | 170.8 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bluecollection)

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.28 5.52x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.06 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.08 1.62x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.12 2.36x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.08 1.62x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.06 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.06 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.07 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.07 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.05 $0.07 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.05 | 52.16% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.05 | 52.29% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.05 | 52.80% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.05 | 52.56% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.05 | 52.92% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.05 | 53.09% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.05 | 52.76% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.05 | 52.30% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.05 | 52.88% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.05 | 53.09% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.05 | 53.27% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.05 | 53.48% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.05 | 53.20% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.05 | 53.22% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.05 | 53.21% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.62% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.05 | 52.95% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.22% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.31% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.49% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.05% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.58% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.05 | 53.19% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.05 | 53.70% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.80% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.62% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.23% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.09% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.05 | 53.31% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.05 | 53.05% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.0% 2 3.6% classified 0.0% violet 0.0% pink 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% restricted 0.0% milspec 3.8% mil spec 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Rare 1.1% #4b69ff 1.8% blue 0.4% industrial 7.9% Consumer 11.4% consumer 53.0% #5e98d9 17.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 52.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $52.16 on average: an expected loss of $47.84 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt