---
title: "BRABUS case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BRABUS ($139.00) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 71.18% from 25 items with odds, observed 71.01% over 1,179 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [BRABUS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · BRABUS

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus?window=all)

Price · $139.00

Advertised RTP · 71.18% · EV $98.95 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.01% · 1,179 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76 openings · below min

7 days · 67.18% ±5.95 454 openings

30 days · 71.01% ±3.76 1,179 openings

since tracking started · 71.01% ±3.76 1,179 openings

53.0% 68.5% 84.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus?window=24h) | 76 | 68.47% ±14.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus?window=7d) | 454 | 67.18% ±5.95 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus) | 1,179 | 71.01% ±3.76 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brabus?window=all) | 1,179 | 71.01% ±3.76 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,179 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 9,671 | $4,541 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 9,166 | $3,271 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,313 | $1,159 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 3,258 | $1,149 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 3,258 | $1,149 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,193 | $1,138 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 659 | $597 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 383 | $489 | 1.3% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-field-tested) | 1 in 271 | $431 | 1.6% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 249 | $418 | 1.7% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $393 | 1.9% | 1 | 5.6 | 0.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $205 | 5.1% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $204 | 5.1% | 26 | 29.1 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $199 | 5.2% | 12 | 30.7 | 0.39× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $160 | 6.6% | 34 | 48.0 | 0.71× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $134 | 7.5% | 49 | 65.3 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $127 | 7.7% | 7 | 71.0 | 0.10× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $122 | 7.9% | 64 | 75.2 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $116 | 8.0% | 69 | 80.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $75.38 | 7.6% | 73 | 117.5 | 0.62× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 10.1% | $72.83 | 7.4% | 107 | 119.3 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 10.6% | $60.93 | 6.5% | 105 | 124.6 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 10.6% | $55.19 | 5.9% | 89 | 124.8 | 0.71× |
| [Sir Bloody Loudmouth Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-loudmouth-darryl-the-professionals) | 10.5% | $50.12 | 5.3% | 144 | 123.3 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 10.1% | $44.54 | 4.6% | 71 | 119.6 | 0.59× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $139 $1,244 8.95x 2026-11-03 07:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Daybreak weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $139 $676 4.86x 2026-11-03 03:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Daybreak weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $139 $676 4.86x 2026-11-03 02:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Zipper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Zipper) $139 $645 4.64x 2026-11-04 01:30 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $139 $639 4.60x 2026-11-03 07:20 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $139 $523 3.76x 2026-11-03 03:10 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [frizy1235](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/frizy1235) $139 $520 3.74x 2026-11-04 05:49 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=brabus)

[USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) [В нереальной зоне](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%92%20%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5) $139 $55.27 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-well-worn) [В нереальной зоне](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%92%20%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5) $139 $134 0.96x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $139 $205 1.48x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $139 $160 1.15x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) [Keep™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Keep%E2%84%A2) $139 $160 1.15x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $139 $44.60 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $139 $77.12 0.55x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $139 $60.41 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC

[USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $139 $55.28 0.40x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [MrBaraban1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MrBaraban1337) $139 $44.60 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $139 | 71.18% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $139 | 71.02% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $139 | 71.00% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $139 | 71.28% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $139 | 71.59% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $139 | 71.60% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $139 | 71.58% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $139 | 71.64% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $139 | 71.70% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $139 | 72.10% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $139 | 72.08% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $139 | 72.07% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $139 | 72.10% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $139 | 72.10% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $139 | 72.10% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $139 | 72.11% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $139 | 72.08% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $139 | 72.09% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $139 | 72.10% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $139 | 72.10% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $139 | 72.04% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $139 | 72.15% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $139 | 72.48% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $139 | 72.49% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $139 | 72.40% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $139 | 72.11% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $139 | 72.19% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $139 | 72.19% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $139 | 72.19% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $139 | 72.17% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% classified 14.9% extraordinary 5.8% covert 40.7% restricted 20.7% #ffd700 0.4% #8847ff 0.5% epic 2.5% pink 4.1% red 10.5% best hit $1,244 (8.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 71.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $71.18 on average: an expected loss of $28.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt