---
title: "Operation Bravo Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation Bravo Case ($13.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.06% from 14 items with odds, observed 90.65% over 521 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation Bravo Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation Bravo Case

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo?window=all)

Price · $13.99

Advertised RTP · 74.06% · EV $10.36 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.65% · 521 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81 openings · below min

7 days · 90.35% ±15.24 459 openings

30 days · 90.65% ±14.32 521 openings

since tracking started · 90.65% ±14.32 521 openings

52.0% 88.3% 124.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.57% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.32% – 104.97%, 521 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo?window=24h) | 81 | 88.25% ±35.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo?window=7d) | 459 | 90.35% ±15.2 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo) | 521 | 90.65% ±14.3 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bravo?window=all) | 521 | 90.65% ±14.3 | +2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 528 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,987 | $1,962 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 9,634 | $639 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,429 | $546 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,614 | $268 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,334 | $170 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,626 | $124 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $92.02 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 673 | $88.65 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $28.58 | 9.4% | 14 | 17.9 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $19.75 | 15.7% | 74 | 43.6 | 1.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 10.3% | $17.82 | 17.7% | 68 | 54.3 | 1.25× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 11.2% | $17.09 | 18.5% | 91 | 59.1 | 1.54× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 33.6% | $5.17 | 16.7% | 120 | 177.2 | 0.68× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-minimal-wear) | 32.9% | $4.67 | 14.8% | 70 | 173.6 | 0.40× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bravo)

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $5.18 0.37x 2026-11-11 16:24 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $5.18 0.37x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-minimal-wear) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $4.68 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $18.10 1.29x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $18.10 1.29x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $18.10 1.29x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $17.16 1.23x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $29.71 2.12x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $19.54 1.40x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $13.99 $19.54 1.40x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.06% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.88% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.99% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.29% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.34% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.41% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.79% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.79% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.76% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.85% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.24% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.23% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.12% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.94% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% classified 0.3% restricted 14.6% violet 18.5% mil spec 66.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.06 on average: an expected loss of $25.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt