---
title: "BRDGamer case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BRDGamer ($13.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.84% from 30 items with odds, observed 74.91% over 976 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [BRDGamer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · BRDGamer

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer?window=all)

Price · $13.99

Advertised RTP · 73.84% · EV $10.33 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.91% · 976 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74.62% ±13.16 119 openings

7 days · 75.47% ±4.97 844 openings

30 days · 74.91% ±4.64 976 openings

since tracking started · 74.91% ±4.64 976 openings

61.0% 74.8% 88.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer?window=24h) | 119 | 74.62% ±13.2 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer?window=7d) | 844 | 75.47% ±4.97 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer) | 976 | 74.91% ±4.64 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brdgamer?window=all) | 976 | 74.91% ±4.64 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 976 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,578 | $2,978 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 164,758 | $639 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,286 | $170 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 10,577 | $146 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 4,360 | $107 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,505 | $99.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 3,180 | $96.01 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 2,256 | $85.34 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 1 in 2,056 | $82.68 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $79.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,565 | $75.30 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 826 | $60.44 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $39.13 | 1.6% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $33.09 | 2.1% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 136 | $31.82 | 2.3% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $27.93 | 2.8% | 14 | 10.2 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $23.91 | 3.6% | 23 | 15.1 | 1.52× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $22.82 | 3.8% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $19.76 | 4.7% | 32 | 23.8 | 1.35× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $16.59 | 5.7% | 27 | 34.8 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $15.85 | 6.0% | 42 | 38.2 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $11.87 | 7.5% | 64 | 63.3 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $11.50 | 7.6% | 27 | 66.3 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $10.72 | 7.8% | 69 | 73.0 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $10.61 | 7.8% | 59 | 73.9 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $8.94 | 7.9% | 61 | 89.4 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 11.5% | $5.85 | 6.5% | 103 | 112.0 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $5.81 | 6.5% | 121 | 112.1 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 11.5% | $5.72 | 6.4% | 120 | 112.3 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 11.6% | $5.37 | 6.0% | 110 | 112.7 | 0.98× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=brdgamer)

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) [SeaDuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SeaDuck) $13.99 $5.78 0.41x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [SeaDuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SeaDuck) $13.99 $5.48 0.39x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [SeaDuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SeaDuck) $13.99 $19.30 1.38x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [SeaDuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SeaDuck) $13.99 $11.88 0.85x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) [SeaDuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SeaDuck) $13.99 $23.77 1.70x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) [pay](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pay) $13.99 $5.78 0.41x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/...) $13.99 $15.43 1.10x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/...) $13.99 $5.48 0.39x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) [datss](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/datss) $13.99 $5.83 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC

[SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) [HyKAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HyKAC) $13.99 $8.94 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $13.99 | 73.84% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.66% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.48% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.46% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.75% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.08% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.08% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.06% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.13% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.19% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.61% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.58% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.57% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.58% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.59% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.60% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.54% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.65% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 74.99% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.00% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.90% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.61% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.70% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.68% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.70% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% gold 0.0% classified 28.4% extraordinary 0.0% mil spec 7.5% Ancient 0.7% violet 1.5% pink 7.5% restricted 19.1% rare 11.5% #d32ee6 11.5% uncommon 11.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.84 on average: an expected loss of $26.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt