---
title: "Operation Breakout Weapon Case on csgo.net: odds & RTP"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation Breakout Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation Breakout Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout?window=all)

Price · $4.09

Advertised RTP · 66.51% · EV $2.72 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 67.85% · 751 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 52.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.52% ±20.14 221 openings

7 days · 68.39% ±11.32 728 openings

30 days · 67.85% ±11.15 751 openings

since tracking started · 67.85% ±11.15 751 openings

51.5% 72.5% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout?window=24h) | 221 | 72.52% ±20.1 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout?window=7d) | 728 | 68.39% ±11.3 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout) | 751 | 67.85% ±11.2 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/breakout?window=all) | 751 | 67.85% ±11.2 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 751 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 199,545 | $1,885 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198,021 | $1,151 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 166,439 | $423 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 161,117 | $398 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 157,390 | $383 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 53,431 | $177 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,518 | $165 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $19.57 | 6.6% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $19.36 | 6.7% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $19.00 | 6.9% | 12 | 7.4 | 1.61× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 24.7% | $2.35 | 21.3% | 119 | 185.4 | 0.64× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 24.6% | $2.29 | 20.7% | 191 | 184.4 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 24.0% | $2.09 | 18.4% | 92 | 180.0 | 0.51× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 23.9% | $2.08 | 18.3% | 175 | 179.8 | 0.97× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=breakout)

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $4.09 $2.23 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $4.09 $1.96 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $4.09 $2.35 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $4.09 $2.35 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $4.09 $1.96 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) [Tigriski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tigriski) $4.09 $2.35 0.57x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) [Tigriski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tigriski) $4.09 $2.09 0.51x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) [Tigriski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tigriski) $4.09 $19.57 4.78x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC

[Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) [Tigriski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tigriski) $4.09 $2.08 0.51x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) [Tigriski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tigriski) $4.09 $2.09 0.51x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.09 | 66.51% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.09 | 66.38% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.09 | 66.45% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.09 | 66.62% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.09 | 66.97% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.09 | 66.92% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.09 | 66.92% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.09 | 66.91% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.09 | 67.04% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.09 | 67.38% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.09 | 67.38% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.09 | 67.35% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.09 | 67.37% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.09 | 67.45% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.09 | 67.41% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 67.43% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 67.37% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.09 | 67.40% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.09 | 67.44% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 67.49% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 67.39% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.09 | 67.46% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.09 | 67.78% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.09 | 67.73% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.09 | 67.70% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.09 | 67.43% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.09 | 67.49% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 67.52% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.09 | 67.56% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $4.09 | 67.48% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 1.9% Legendary 1.0% violet 24.7% Mythical 24.6% restricted 47.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 66.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $66.51 on average: an expected loss of $33.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt