---
title: "Бриллианты case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Бриллианты ($53.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.48% from 33 items with odds, observed 72.89% over 907 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Бриллианты](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Бриллианты

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants?window=all)

Price · $53.99

Advertised RTP · 73.48% · EV $39.67 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.89% · 907 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 41.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.23% ±9.26 100 openings

7 days · 72.61% ±3.61 743 openings

30 days · 72.89% ±3.32 907 openings

since tracking started · 72.89% ±3.32 907 openings

62.5% 72.2% 82.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants?window=24h) | 100 | 72.23% ±9.26 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants?window=7d) | 743 | 72.61% ±3.61 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants) | 907 | 72.89% ±3.32 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/brilliants?window=all) | 907 | 72.89% ±3.32 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 907 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 9,220 | $867 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,754 | $729 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 7,601 | $559 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,409 | $540 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 6,437 | $464 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,455 | $354 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,003 | $240 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,473 | $212 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,172 | $194 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 840 | $171 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 694 | $160 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 361 | $127 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $125 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 339 | $124 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 311 | $120 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $119 | 1.0% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.34× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 282 | $116 | 1.0% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 231 | $108 | 1.2% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 180 | $99.43 | 1.4% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $93.16 | 1.6% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $85.57 | 1.8% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $70.73 | 2.6% | 18 | 13.4 | 1.34× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $68.35 | 2.8% | 8 | 14.8 | 0.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $67.85 | 2.8% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $55.15 | 4.2% | 22 | 27.2 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $44.87 | 6.0% | 46 | 48.0 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $39.70 | 7.4% | 67 | 66.6 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $39.13 | 7.5% | 61 | 69.2 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $37.82 | 8.0% | 67 | 75.7 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $36.49 | 8.4% | 74 | 83.1 | 0.89× |
| [Sir Bloody Darryl Royale \| The Professionals agent · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-darryl-royale-the-professionals) | 11.7% | $33.20 | 9.8% | 87 | 105.7 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 12.8% | $31.93 | 10.3% | 87 | 116.5 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $23.99 | 15.1% | 212 | 227.0 | 0.93× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=brilliants)

[Sir Bloody Darryl Royale | The Professionals agent · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-darryl-royale-the-professionals) [D4RK☽](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D4RK%E2%98%BD) $53.99 $35.42 0.66x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) [D4RK☽](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D4RK%E2%98%BD) $53.99 $37.82 0.70x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [D4RK☽](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D4RK%E2%98%BD) $53.99 $41.71 0.77x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) [D4RK☽](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D4RK%E2%98%BD) $53.99 $37.82 0.70x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC

[P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) [Heycore :X](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heycore%20%3AX) $53.99 $23.99 0.44x 2026-11-11 16:19 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) [Ando](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ando) $53.99 $31.28 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) [Ando](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ando) $53.99 $37.19 0.69x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [chokh9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/chokh9) $53.99 $39.13 0.72x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

[Sir Bloody Darryl Royale | The Professionals agent · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-darryl-royale-the-professionals) [z3d](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/z3d) $53.99 $33.20 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:32 UTC

[P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $53.99 $36.49 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $53.99 | 73.48% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $53.99 | 73.30% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $53.99 | 73.13% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $53.99 | 73.11% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $53.99 | 73.40% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $53.99 | 73.71% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $53.99 | 73.72% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $53.99 | 73.70% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $53.99 | 73.77% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $53.99 | 73.83% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $53.99 | 74.24% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $53.99 | 74.22% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $53.99 | 74.21% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $53.99 | 74.24% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $53.99 | 74.23% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $53.99 | 74.24% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 74.24% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 74.22% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $53.99 | 74.22% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $53.99 | 74.24% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 74.24% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 74.17% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $53.99 | 74.29% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $53.99 | 74.63% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $53.99 | 74.64% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $53.99 | 74.54% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $53.99 | 74.24% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $53.99 | 74.33% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $53.99 | 74.33% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $53.99 | 74.33% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 33.2% extraordinary 1.2% rare 0.0% covert 29.8% sunny 0.0% mil spec 1.7% red 0.1% gold 0.1% covert knife 0.3% Covert 1.5% restricted 3.0% pink 17.5% Ancient 11.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.48 on average: an expected loss of $26.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt