---
title: "Бабл ти case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Бабл ти ($6.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.30% from 29 items with odds, observed 77.12% over 520 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Бабл ти](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Бабл ти

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea?window=all)

Price · $6.09

Advertised RTP · 76.30% · EV $4.65 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.12% · 520 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 65 openings · below min

7 days · 77.36% ±7.42 439 openings

30 days · 77.12% ±6.83 520 openings

since tracking started · 77.12% ±6.83 520 openings

55.0% 74.5% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea?window=24h) | 65 | 74.38% ±18.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea?window=7d) | 439 | 77.36% ±7.42 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea) | 520 | 77.12% ±6.83 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/bubbletea?window=all) | 520 | 77.12% ±6.83 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 522 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,785 | $208 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,618 | $171 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,506 | $156 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 8,798 | $113 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,081 | $93.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 7,597 | $85.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,090 | $78.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 5,643 | $63.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,356 | $60.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 3,696 | $48.57 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 1,534 | $32.71 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 1,185 | $29.56 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 370 | $19.25 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $17.70 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $15.41 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $13.69 | 2.0% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $12.70 | 2.3% | 10 | 4.4 | 2.25× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $12.23 | 2.5% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $8.54 | 4.4% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.49 | 6.3% | 27 | 23.5 | 1.15× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.67 | 7.2% | 35 | 30.8 | 1.13× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $5.60 | 7.3% | 27 | 31.6 | 0.85× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $5.38 | 7.6% | 38 | 34.1 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $5.13 | 7.9% | 46 | 37.3 | 1.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.63 | 8.5% | 40 | 44.4 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 11.6% | $3.70 | 9.3% | 43 | 60.8 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 12.1% | $3.58 | 9.3% | 64 | 63.2 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 15.2% | $2.73 | 8.9% | 69 | 79.5 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 16.1% | $2.44 | 8.4% | 75 | 83.9 | 0.89× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=bubbletea)

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [f1rya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/f1rya) $6.09 $4.29 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $6.09 $2.74 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $6.09 $5.36 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $6.09 $4.29 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $6.09 $3.54 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) [гыча](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%B3%D1%8B%D1%87%D0%B0) $6.09 $5.68 0.93x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [-𝓪𝓵𝔃𝓲](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%F0%9D%93%AA%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%83%F0%9D%93%B2) $6.09 $3.54 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $6.09 $3.53 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $6.09 $4.29 0.70x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $6.09 $4.29 0.70x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.09 | 76.30% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.09 | 76.09% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.09 | 76.07% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.09 | 76.37% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.09 | 76.70% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.09 | 76.71% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.09 | 76.68% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.09 | 76.75% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.09 | 76.80% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.09 | 77.22% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.09 | 77.23% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.09 | 77.22% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.09 | 77.25% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.09 | 77.27% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.09 | 77.26% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.09 | 77.27% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.09 | 77.22% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.09 | 77.22% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.09 | 77.25% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.09 | 77.28% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.09 | 77.21% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.09 | 77.32% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.09 | 77.67% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.09 | 77.65% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.09 | 77.58% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.09 | 77.29% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.09 | 77.35% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.09 | 77.34% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.09 | 77.38% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $6.09 | 77.33% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.0% classified 38.4% red 0.0% rare 0.0% restricted 26.3% #eb4b4b 0.7% pink 15.9% #d32ee6 2.4% #8847ff 16.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.30 on average: an expected loss of $23.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt