---
title: "Cache case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cache ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.04% from 13 items with odds, observed 143.93% over 11 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Cache](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Cache

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache?window=all)

Price · $6.79

Advertised RTP · 76.04% · EV $5.16 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 143.93% · 11 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 10 openings · below min

30 days · 11 openings · below min

since tracking started · 11 openings · below min

25.0% 128.3% 231.5%

**Small sample.** 11 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache?window=24h) | 2 | 128.35% ±102.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache?window=7d) | 10 | 146.20% ±38.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache) | 11 | 143.93% ±36.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cache?window=all) | 11 | 143.93% ±36.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $22.90 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $16.26 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $15.64 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $12.80 | 11.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.39 | 11.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $10.81 | 13.4% | 4 | 0.7 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $8.76 | 15.3% | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) | 12.8% | $2.27 | 5.6% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 12.3% | $2.13 | 5.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-well-worn) | 11.9% | $2.03 | 4.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) | 11.3% | $1.87 | 4.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-field-tested) | 10.5% | $1.70 | 3.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.50 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=cache)

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $6.79 $8.75 1.29x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) [dust2 pick = troll game](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/dust2%20pick%20%3D%20troll%20game) $6.79 $8.68 1.28x 2026-11-10 22:11 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $6.79 $11.47 1.69x 2026-11-10 10:10 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) [Alatei](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Alatei) $6.79 $12.42 1.83x 2026-11-09 20:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) [nmm45g!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nmm45g!) $6.79 $12.82 1.89x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $6.79 $8.54 1.26x 2026-11-09 08:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) [Scrudge MadCock](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Scrudge%20MadCock) $6.79 $8.47 1.25x 2026-11-05 21:38 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) [SniG\_DP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SniG_DP) $6.79 $9.74 1.43x 2026-11-05 15:02 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) [Arm0gen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Arm0gen) $6.79 $9.82 1.45x 2026-11-05 04:12 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) [𝙎𝞓𝙇](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%99%8E%F0%9D%9E%93%F0%9D%99%87) $6.79 $8.56 1.26x 2026-11-04 22:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.04% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.85% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.83% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.17% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.45% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.46% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.50% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.61% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.95% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 76.95% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.95% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.94% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.06% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.40% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.44% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.28% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 76.97% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.09% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.09% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $6.79 | 77.09% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 1.1% mil spec 21.5% violet 9.0% industrial 48.3% Uncommon 10.5% light blue 9.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.04 on average: an expected loss of $23.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt