---
title: "Карнавальный кошмар case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Карнавальный кошмар ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.76% from 30 items with odds, observed 80.07% over 63.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Карнавальный кошмар](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Карнавальный кошмар

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 75.76% · EV $0.51 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.07% · 63.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.88% ±1.87 7,086 openings

7 days · 80.12% ±0.73 50.1K openings

30 days · 80.07% ±0.65 63.9K openings

since tracking started · 80.07% ±0.65 63.9K openings

75.0% 78.3% 81.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.53% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.43% – 80.72%, 63,932 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare?window=24h) | 7,086 | 77.88% ±1.87 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare?window=7d) | 50.1K | 80.12% ±0.73 | +10.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare) | 63.9K | 80.07% ±0.65 | +10.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/carnivalnightmare?window=all) | 63.9K | 80.07% ±0.65 | +10.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 9,789 | $24.41 | 0.5% | 12 | 6.5 | 1.84× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 9,592 | $19.46 | 0.4% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.35× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 9,277 | $15.90 | 0.3% | 2 | 6.9 | 0.29× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 8,837 | $13.35 | 0.3% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 8,460 | $11.98 | 0.3% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 7,453 | $9.71 | 0.3% | 13 | 8.6 | 1.51× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 6,962 | $8.94 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 5,511 | $7.26 | 0.3% | 17 | 11.6 | 1.46× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 3,465 | $5.48 | 0.3% | 26 | 18.5 | 1.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 2,327 | $4.54 | 0.4% | 36 | 27.5 | 1.31× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,702 | $3.97 | 0.5% | 49 | 37.6 | 1.30× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 1,198 | $3.46 | 0.6% | 72 | 53.4 | 1.35× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 523 | $2.54 | 1.0% | 15 | 122.3 | 0.12× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 408 | $2.32 | 1.1% | 224 | 156.7 | 1.43× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 206 | $1.80 | 1.7% | 411 | 310.6 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $1.74 | 1.8% | 226 | 343.4 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.19 | 3.4% | 1,104 | 922.2 | 1.20× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $1.09 | 3.9% | 1,492 | 1151.9 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.96 | 4.6% | 1,985 | 1566.5 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.87 | 5.2% | 483 | 1922.5 | 0.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.76 | 6.0% | 3,354 | 2551.2 | 1.31× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.62 | 7.1% | 4,578 | 3691.8 | 1.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.54 | 7.6% | 4,370 | 4570.0 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.51 | 7.8% | 5,703 | 4971.6 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.44 | 8.0% | 3,457 | 5918.1 | 0.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.41 | 8.0% | 7,053 | 6238.1 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 11.1% | $0.34 | 7.5% | 6,992 | 7104.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 11.4% | $0.33 | 7.3% | 8,102 | 7269.8 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 11.4% | $0.32 | 7.3% | 4,040 | 7320.6 | 0.55× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Zen charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-zen) | 11.9% | $0.28 | 6.5% | 4,612 | 7629.4 | 0.60× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=carnivalnightmare)

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.32 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.53 0.79x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.41 0.62x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.53 0.79x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.34 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [Mirkelo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mirkelo) $0.67 $0.53 0.79x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.51 0.76x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.62 0.93x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.34 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [GASPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GASPAR) $0.67 $0.34 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.67 | 75.76% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.66% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.45% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.35% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.86% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.11% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.12% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.09% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.10% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.19% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.51% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.57% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.53% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.01% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 76.98% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.97% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.72% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.74% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.81% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.72% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% Legendary 0.1% pink 0.1% rare 0.0% restricted 8.1% mil spec 11.6% Mythical 8.7% Rare 0.5% #8847ff 7.2% #4b69ff 24.2% violet 39.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.76 on average: an expected loss of $24.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt