---
title: "Case PANDAO case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Case PANDAO ($4.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.82% from 29 items with odds, observed 82.02% over 1,520 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Case PANDAO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Case PANDAO

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao?window=all)

Price · $4.09

Advertised RTP · 75.82% · EV $3.10 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.02% · 1,520 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.04% ±9.54 153 openings

7 days · 81.51% ±3.39 1,319 openings

30 days · 82.02% ±3.16 1,520 openings

since tracking started · 82.02% ±3.16 1,520 openings

66.0% 76.0% 86.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.85% – 85.18%, 1,520 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao?window=24h) | 153 | 76.04% ±9.54 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao?window=7d) | 1,319 | 81.51% ±3.39 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao) | 1,520 | 82.02% ±3.16 | +3.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepandao?window=all) | 1,520 | 82.02% ±3.16 | +3.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,520 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 49,786 | $93.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 30,354 | $75.80 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27,131 | $72.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 21,018 | $65.84 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 9,410 | $49.26 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 5,801 | $41.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,587 | $41.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,858 | $39.13 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 4,514 | $38.15 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 2,293 | $30.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 2,264 | $30.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,230 | $24.41 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.43× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 463 | $17.40 | 1.2% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 335 | $15.51 | 1.5% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.54× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $12.02 | 2.3% | 12 | 9.2 | 1.31× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $11.59 | 2.5% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.09× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $6.67 | 5.6% | 43 | 39.6 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $6.61 | 5.6% | 102 | 40.3 | 2.53× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $5.12 | 7.3% | 74 | 66.8 | 1.11× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.81 | 7.6% | 106 | 74.5 | 1.42× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.40 | 8.6% | 122 | 118.9 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.35 | 8.6% | 23 | 120.6 | 0.19× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $2.94 | 8.4% | 35 | 134.5 | 0.26× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.65 | 8.1% | 80 | 143.6 | 0.56× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.61 | 8.0% | 56 | 144.7 | 0.39× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 10.2% | $1.95 | 6.4% | 211 | 154.8 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 10.1% | $1.74 | 5.7% | 95 | 153.2 | 0.62× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $1.54 | 4.9% | 192 | 148.8 | 1.29× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $1.53 | 4.8% | 12 | 148.4 | 0.08× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=casepandao)

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) [Raf无为](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Raf%E6%97%A0%E4%B8%BA) $4.09 $3.40 0.83x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) [Daisyke Naratano](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Daisyke%20Naratano) $4.09 $2.65 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $2.94 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-minimal-wear) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $2.63 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $1.74 0.43x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $2.65 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $2.00 0.49x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $2.00 0.49x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $5.13 1.25x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) [PonySlaystation](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/PonySlaystation) $4.09 $3.40 0.83x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $4.09 | 75.82% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.09 | 75.60% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.43% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.45% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.78% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.09 | 76.04% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.05% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.05% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.08% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.21% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.61% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.56% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.53% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.65% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.09 | 77.01% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.09 | 77.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.93% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.61% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.73% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.09 | 76.67% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 9.2% restricted 36.2% violet 0.3% #8847ff 2.6% Legendary 13.9% Rare 18.0% mil spec 9.4% Mythical 10.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.82 on average: an expected loss of $24.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt