---
title: "Case patrol case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Case patrol ($7.49) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.02% from 48 items with odds, observed 73.87% over 1,437 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Case patrol](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Case patrol

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol?window=all)

Price · $7.49

Advertised RTP · 76.02% · EV $5.69 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.87% · 1,437 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.37% ±12.22 124 openings

7 days · 74.18% ±3.91 1,213 openings

30 days · 73.87% ±3.61 1,437 openings

since tracking started · 73.87% ±3.61 1,437 openings

59.5% 72.2% 85.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol?window=24h) | 124 | 72.37% ±12.2 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol?window=7d) | 1,213 | 74.18% ±3.91 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol) | 1,437 | 73.87% ±3.61 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/casepatrol?window=all) | 1,437 | 73.87% ±3.61 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,437 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 183,399 | $464 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102,534 | $212 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,041 | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78,492 | $180 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 73,999 | $174 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 59,602 | $156 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 42,468 | $134 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 36,885 | $127 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 36,069 | $126 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 32,366 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28,172 | $114 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 24,027 | $107 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 22,778 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,561 | $93.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 7,638 | $70.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,779 | $67.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,871 | $55.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 3,740 | $55.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 2,647 | $49.06 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,003 | $44.58 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,437 | $39.78 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,371 | $39.13 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 762 | $31.94 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 754 | $31.82 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 643 | $30.12 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 621 | $29.76 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 554 | $28.58 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 544 | $28.41 | 0.9% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.51× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) | 1 in 354 | $24.40 | 1.2% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $19.46 | 1.8% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188 | $19.43 | 1.8% | 2 | 7.6 | 0.26× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $12.20 | 3.7% | 27 | 25.0 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $11.98 | 3.8% | 17 | 26.1 | 0.65× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $11.92 | 3.8% | 34 | 26.4 | 1.29× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $11.87 | 3.9% | 24 | 26.7 | 0.90× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $11.56 | 4.0% | 12 | 28.3 | 0.42× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $9.71 | 4.9% | 38 | 41.5 | 0.92× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $9.30 | 5.1% | 48 | 45.2 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $8.71 | 5.5% | 51 | 51.4 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $5.48 | 6.8% | 94 | 102.2 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.73 | 6.7% | 30 | 116.5 | 0.26× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.56 | 6.7% | 142 | 119.5 | 1.19× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.22 | 6.5% | 125 | 125.2 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.85 | 6.1% | 154 | 130.3 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.46 | 5.7% | 125 | 134.1 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.00 | 5.0% | 174 | 135.2 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.70 | 4.4% | 105 | 133.5 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.58 | 4.2% | 5 | 132.0 | 0.04× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=casepatrol)

[P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) [palo bryndza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/palo%20bryndza) $7.49 $9.32 1.24x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [ГУСЬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A1%D0%AC) $7.49 $3.86 0.52x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [ГУСЬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A1%D0%AC) $7.49 $2.90 0.39x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) [ГУСЬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A1%D0%AC) $7.49 $3.52 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) [ГУСЬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A1%D0%AC) $7.49 $8.59 1.15x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) [ГУСЬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%A3%D0%A1%D0%AC) $7.49 $5.46 0.73x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) [dudn1ch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/dudn1ch) $7.49 $11.51 1.54x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [Прикол](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BB) $7.49 $11.71 1.56x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [Прикол](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BB) $7.49 $4.15 0.55x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [Прикол](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BB) $7.49 $11.99 1.60x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $7.49 | 76.02% | 48 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $7.49 | 75.81% | 47 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $7.49 | 75.66% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $7.49 | 75.65% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $7.49 | 75.91% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $7.49 | 76.26% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.29% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.27% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.32% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $7.49 | 76.37% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.49 | 76.81% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $7.49 | 76.79% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $7.49 | 76.74% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $7.49 | 76.78% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $7.49 | 76.80% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $7.49 | 76.80% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.80% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.79% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.80% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.81% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.81% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $7.49 | 76.73% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.84% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $7.49 | 77.20% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $7.49 | 77.25% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $7.49 | 77.10% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.82% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.92% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.49 | 76.88% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $7.49 | 76.88% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% mil spec 0.5% Classified 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% covert knife 0.0% classified 37.7% red 0.0% rare 0.0% Covert 0.0% Ancient 0.3% restricted 18.7% Legendary 9.9% #d32ee6 1.8% violet 11.9% Mythical 9.1% pink 9.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.02 on average: an expected loss of $23.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt