---
title: "Chop Shop case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chop Shop ($2.69) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.71% from 19 items with odds, observed 11.37% over 43 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Chop Shop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Chop Shop

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 76.71% · EV $2.06 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 11.37% · 43 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 44.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 28 openings · below min

7 days · 39 openings · below min

30 days · 43 openings · below min

since tracking started · 43 openings · below min

-0.5% 38.5% 77.5%

**Small sample.** 43 openings and 17.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop?window=24h) | 28 | 11.00% ±48.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop?window=7d) | 39 | 11.10% ±41.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop) | 43 | 11.37% ±39.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chop-shop?window=all) | 43 | 11.37% ±39.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 199,636 | $1,141 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179,425 | $287 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146,856 | $196 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 144,509 | $192 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,676 | $33.09 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 2,413 | $31.94 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 2,170 | $30.80 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $29.76 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 1,629 | $27.94 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $12.16 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $7.85 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $6.37 | 11.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 18.6% | $2.03 | 18.3% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 18.9% | $1.93 | 17.6% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-well-worn) | 19.0% | $1.88 | 17.3% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Impact Drill (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-well-worn) | 19.1% | $1.80 | 16.7% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.34 | 1.1% | 14 | 3.0 | 4.74× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.27 | 0.7% | 18 | 2.4 | 7.47× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.25 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=chop-shop)

[P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.28 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.28 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.35 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.28 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.28 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.35 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:21 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-well-worn) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.35 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:21 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.23 0.09x 2026-11-10 20:21 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.23 0.09x 2026-11-10 20:21 UTC

[P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-field-tested) [Garfield](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Garfield) $2.69 $0.28 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.69 | 76.71% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.58% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.32% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.26% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.64% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.97% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.97% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.01% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.04% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.07% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.54% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.48% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.48% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.44% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.40% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 77.95% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 77.93% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.83% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.61% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.61% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.62% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 3.6% classified 0.0% restricted 0.0% mil spec 10.9% blue 0.0% #4b69ff 0.1% light blue 0.7% industrial 2.2% Common 18.6% consumer 18.9% #B0C3D9 19.0% Consumer Grade 19.1% milspec 6.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.71 on average: an expected loss of $23.29 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt