---
title: "Chroma Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chroma Case ($4.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.77% from 13 items with odds, observed 85.74% over 30 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Chroma Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Chroma Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma?window=all)

Price · $4.09

Advertised RTP · 75.77% · EV $3.10 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.74% · 30 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 28 openings · below min

30 days · 30 openings · below min

since tracking started · 30 openings · below min

24.5% 160.8% 297.0%

**Small sample.** 30 openings and 10.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma?window=24h) | 5 | 160.68% ±135.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma?window=7d) | 28 | 88.88% ±59.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma) | 30 | 85.74% ±57.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma?window=all) | 30 | 85.74% ±57.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,879 | $354 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,821 | $310 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,523 | $221 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,428 | $116 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 7,355 | $115 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 6,759 | $104 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $15.09 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $12.14 | 9.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $12.02 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 23.4% | $2.97 | 22.4% | 0 | 7.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 24.2% | $2.50 | 19.5% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 23.7% | $2.02 | 15.4% | 2 | 7.1 | 0.28× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 22.3% | $1.70 | 12.3% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=chroma)

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [ROLTON](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ROLTON) $4.09 $1.69 0.41x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [Блэкджекович](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%91%D0%BB%D1%8D%D0%BA%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87) $4.09 $12.30 3.01x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [M1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/M1) $4.09 $1.76 0.43x 2026-11-10 21:49 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) [Konstantin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Konstantin) $4.09 $2.16 0.53x 2026-11-10 21:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [Konstantin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Konstantin) $4.09 $14.95 3.66x 2026-11-10 21:15 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) [mAge](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/mAge) $4.09 $12.28 3.00x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [mAge](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/mAge) $4.09 $2.60 0.64x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/23) $4.09 $1.97 0.48x 2026-11-10 11:37 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $4.09 $2.04 0.50x 2026-11-10 10:07 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [- SHAMo)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%20SHAMo%29) $4.09 $2.61 0.64x 2026-11-10 08:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $4.09 | 75.77% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.09 | 75.59% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.45% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.38% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.71% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.09 | 76.10% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.06% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.05% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.09% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.13% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.53% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.52% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.65% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.09 | 77.02% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.09 | 77.02% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.91% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.61% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.68% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.74% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.09 | 76.68% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 6.3% restricted 69.4% #8847ff 24.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.77 on average: an expected loss of $24.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt