---
title: "Chroma 2 Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chroma 2 Case ($2.59) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.47% from 14 items with odds, observed 77.12% over 108 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Chroma 2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Chroma 2 Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2?window=all)

Price · $2.59

Advertised RTP · 75.47% · EV $1.95 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.12% · 108 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 41.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 21 openings · below min

7 days · 78.10% ±58.18 100 openings

30 days · 77.12% ±56.03 108 openings

since tracking started · 77.12% ±56.03 108 openings

-0.5% 100.3% 201.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2?window=24h) | 21 | 72.83% ±127.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2?window=7d) | 100 | 78.10% ±58.2 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2) | 108 | 77.12% ±56.0 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma2?window=all) | 108 | 77.12% ±56.0 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,991 | $559 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 9,976 | $398 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,918 | $263 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,112 | $115 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,002 | $110 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 8,736 | $101 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $12.25 | 4.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $11.80 | 5.0% | 5 | 0.9 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $11.47 | 5.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 18.5% | $2.38 | 22.6% | 15 | 20.0 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 20.7% | $1.75 | 18.5% | 8 | 22.4 | 0.36× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 19.6% | $1.24 | 12.4% | 27 | 21.2 | 1.27× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 19.4% | $1.20 | 11.9% | 10 | 20.9 | 0.48× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 19.3% | $1.18 | 11.6% | 27 | 20.8 | 1.30× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=chroma2)

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Boris\_Britva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boris_Britva) $2.59 $1.24 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Boris\_Britva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Boris_Britva) $2.59 $1.24 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $2.59 $1.17 0.45x 2026-11-11 10:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $2.59 $1.24 0.48x 2026-11-11 10:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $2.59 $1.24 0.48x 2026-11-11 10:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $2.59 $1.74 0.67x 2026-11-11 10:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $2.59 $1.24 0.48x 2026-11-11 10:14 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $2.59 $1.17 0.45x 2026-11-11 10:14 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) [ROLTON](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ROLTON) $2.59 $1.19 0.46x 2026-11-11 05:12 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [ROLTON](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ROLTON) $2.59 $1.20 0.46x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.59 | 75.47% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.27% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.32% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.58% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.59 | 75.97% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.59 | 76.01% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.95% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.97% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.59 | 76.08% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.59 | 76.51% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.59 | 76.58% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.59 | 76.52% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.49% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.46% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.47% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.55% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.55% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.47% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.45% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.48% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.40% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.48% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.59 | 76.91% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.59 | 76.92% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.90% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.43% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.55% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.53% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.59 | 76.55% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.59 | 76.58% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% #d32ee6 0.7% classified 1.7% #8847ff 18.5% Rare 20.7% violet 39.0% restricted 19.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.47 on average: an expected loss of $24.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt