--- title: "Chroma 3 Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Chroma 3 Case ($4.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.81% from 12 items with odds, observed 63.90% over 81 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Chroma 3 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Chroma 3 Case A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3?window=all) Price · $4.09 Advertised RTP · 75.81% · EV $3.10 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.90% · 81 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 23 openings · below min 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 81 openings · below min since tracking started · 81 openings · below min -0.5% 78.5% 157.5% **Small sample.** 81 openings and 14.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3?window=24h) | 23 | 61.70% ±95.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3?window=7d) | 80 | 64.36% ±52.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3) | 81 | 63.90% ±51.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/chroma3?window=all) | 81 | 63.90% ±51.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,942 | $598 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 9,935 | $575 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,509 | $289 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,972 | $221 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 7,198 | $147 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,293 | $112 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 5,067 | $108 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,651 | $62.44 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $12.26 | 21.2% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $10.80 | 25.6% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.67× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 45.6% | $1.71 | 25.2% | 32 | 36.9 | 0.87× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 41.5% | $1.44 | 19.3% | 11 | 33.6 | 0.33× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=chroma3) [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $4.09 $1.71 0.42x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $4.09 $1.71 0.42x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [LoperoMID](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/LoperoMID) $4.09 $1.71 0.42x 2026-11-11 08:23 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [\_Gh0s7\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/_Gh0s7_) $4.09 $1.71 0.42x 2026-11-10 20:28 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [warcraft.forever17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/warcraft.forever17) $4.09 $1.42 0.35x 2026-11-10 20:12 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [warcraft.forever17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/warcraft.forever17) $4.09 $1.71 0.42x 2026-11-10 20:12 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [warcraft.forever17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/warcraft.forever17) $4.09 $1.42 0.35x 2026-11-10 20:12 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [warcraft.forever17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/warcraft.forever17) $4.09 $1.71 0.42x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [warcraft.forever17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/warcraft.forever17) $4.09 $1.71 0.42x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [warcraft.forever17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/warcraft.forever17) $4.09 $1.42 0.35x 2026-11-10 20:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $4.09 | 75.81% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.09 | 75.64% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.44% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.42% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.64% | 13 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.09 | 76.02% | 11 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.05% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.07% | 13 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.12% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.20% | 21 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 21 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 21 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.09 | 76.47% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.71% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.70% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 21 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 21 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 21 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 21 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.61% | 21 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 21 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.66% | 21 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.09 | 77.01% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.09 | 77.03% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.89% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.69% | 21 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.69% | 21 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.09 | 76.70% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% sunny 0.0% gold 0.1% #d32ee6 5.4% classified 7.3% restricted 45.6% #8847ff 41.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.81 on average: an expected loss of $24.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt