---
title: "Cobblestone case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cobblestone ($74.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.05% from 13 items with odds, observed 127.30% over 56 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Cobblestone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Cobblestone

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone?window=all)

Price · $74.99

Advertised RTP · 76.05% · EV $57.03 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 127.30% · 56 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 35 openings · below min

30 days · 56 openings · below min

since tracking started · 56 openings · below min

-0.5% 141.8% 284.0%

**Small sample.** 56 openings and 20.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone?window=24h) | 13 | 61.00% ±222.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone?window=7d) | 35 | 60.71% ±126.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone) | 56 | 127.30% ±97.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cobblestone?window=all) | 56 | 127.30% ±97.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,782 | $6,731 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $2,852 | 35.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) | 35.4% | $47.32 | 29.4% | 15 | 19.8 | 0.76× |
| [P2000 \| Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-minimal-wear) | 32.6% | $43.35 | 24.8% | 23 | 18.3 | 1.26× |
| [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $9.57 | 1.2% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $7.77 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.53 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $7.10 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Indigo (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $1.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [P90 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $1.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Briar (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $1.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $1.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $1.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Knight weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight) [VEM PRA twitch.tv/jpndub](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VEM%20PRA%20twitch.tv%2Fjpndub) $74.99 $2,765 36.87x 2026-11-03 01:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=cobblestone)

[P2000 | Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-minimal-wear) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $74.99 $42.15 0.56x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [ЗахарЗубрайло](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%97%D1%83%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB%D0%BE) $74.99 $47.27 0.63x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $74.99 $47.42 0.63x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $74.99 $47.42 0.63x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC

[P2000 | Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-minimal-wear) [$torm\_CK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24torm_CK) $74.99 $41.99 0.56x 2026-11-11 07:26 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [$torm\_CK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24torm_CK) $74.99 $47.53 0.63x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [$torm\_CK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24torm_CK) $74.99 $47.53 0.63x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC

[P2000 | Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-minimal-wear) [$torm\_CK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24torm_CK) $74.99 $41.99 0.56x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [$torm\_CK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24torm_CK) $74.99 $47.53 0.63x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [$torm\_CK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24torm_CK) $74.99 $47.60 0.63x 2026-11-11 07:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $74.99 | 76.05% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $74.99 | 75.86% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $74.99 | 75.69% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $74.99 | 75.67% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $74.99 | 75.96% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $74.99 | 76.29% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.30% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.28% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.35% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.42% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $74.99 | 76.85% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $74.99 | 76.82% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $74.99 | 76.81% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $74.99 | 76.83% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.85% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.82% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.83% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.77% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.89% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $74.99 | 77.24% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $74.99 | 77.25% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.16% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.85% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.94% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.93% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $74.99 | 76.94% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% classified 0.7% mil spec 68.0% #87c7ff 7.4% industrial 6.0% Industrial Grade 11.3% Common 2.9% consumer 1.3% #777777 2.4% best hit $2,765 (36.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.05 on average: an expected loss of $23.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt