---
title: "COD: Modern Warfare 4 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "COD: Modern Warfare 4 ($0.17) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.05% from 30 items with odds, observed 85.22% over 24K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [COD: Modern Warfare 4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · COD: Modern Warfare 4

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4?window=all)

Price · $0.17

Advertised RTP · 75.05% · EV $0.13 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.22% · 24K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.60% ±2.72 3,605 openings

7 days · 85.22% ±1.04 24K openings

30 days · 85.22% ±1.04 24K openings

since tracking started · 85.22% ±1.04 24K openings

74.5% 80.8% 87.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.18% – 86.25%, 24,043 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4?window=24h) | 3,605 | 82.60% ±2.72 | +5.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4?window=7d) | 24K | 85.22% ±1.04 | +17.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4) | 24K | 85.22% ±1.04 | +17.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cod4?window=all) | 24K | 85.22% ±1.04 | +17.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,838 | $6.49 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 9,767 | $5.74 | 0.5% | 7 | 2.5 | 2.83× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 9,362 | $4.04 | 0.3% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.33× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,195 | $3.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Eye of Ball charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-eye-of-ball) | 1 in 8,278 | $2.78 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,934 | $2.16 | 0.2% | 9 | 3.5 | 2.59× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 5,283 | $1.71 | 0.3% | 11 | 4.6 | 2.41× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,934 | $1.63 | 0.3% | 10 | 4.9 | 2.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 3,862 | $1.41 | 0.3% | 12 | 6.2 | 1.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 2,995 | $1.24 | 0.3% | 20 | 8.1 | 2.48× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 2,950 | $1.23 | 0.3% | 12 | 8.2 | 1.47× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 2,043 | $1.04 | 0.4% | 33 | 11.8 | 2.79× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 1,199 | $0.84 | 0.5% | 39 | 20.1 | 1.94× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,121 | $0.82 | 0.6% | 36 | 21.5 | 1.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 490 | $0.60 | 1.0% | 93 | 49.2 | 1.89× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-minimal-wear) | 1 in 393 | $0.56 | 1.1% | 36 | 61.5 | 0.59× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 353 | $0.54 | 1.2% | 160 | 68.3 | 2.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $0.35 | 2.5% | 555 | 222.2 | 2.50× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.25 | 4.3% | 1,096 | 528.4 | 2.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.21 | 5.5% | 458 | 817.4 | 0.56× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.20 | 5.5% | 1,042 | 839.9 | 1.24× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 1 in 17 | $0.16 | 7.2% | 1,363 | 1411.4 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 7.9% | 1,555 | 1771.0 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.13 | 8.1% | 1,958 | 1867.7 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.13 | 8.3% | 694 | 2000.3 | 0.35× |
| [P250 \| Exchanger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 8.4% | 2,114 | 2104.6 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 11.5% | $0.10 | 8.8% | 2,804 | 2776.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 12.9% | $0.08 | 8.5% | 2,138 | 3121.1 | 0.69× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.08 | 8.5% | 2,485 | 3140.0 | 0.79× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) | 13.4% | $0.08 | 8.2% | 522 | 3239.9 | 0.16× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=cod4)

[MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) [nikita2505tasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nikita2505tasy) $0.17 $0.08 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-field-tested) [nikita2505tasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nikita2505tasy) $0.17 $0.18 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) [SHORK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SHORK) $0.17 $0.23 1.35x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-field-tested) [nikita2505tasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nikita2505tasy) $0.17 $0.14 0.85x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-field-tested) [nikita2505tasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nikita2505tasy) $0.17 $0.14 0.85x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) [nikita2505tasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nikita2505tasy) $0.17 $0.13 0.74x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [nikita2505tasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nikita2505tasy) $0.17 $0.60 3.53x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) [nikita2505tasy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nikita2505tasy) $0.17 $0.08 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) [qumso17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/qumso17) $0.17 $0.09 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-field-tested) [qumso17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/qumso17) $0.17 $0.12 0.71x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.17 | 75.05% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.17 | 74.91% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.17 | 74.97% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.17 | 75.18% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.17 | 75.51% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.50% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.43% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.50% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.57% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.17 | 76.00% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.17 | 76.02% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.17 | 75.97% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.17 | 76.07% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.17 | 75.95% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.17 | 75.94% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.17 | 76.03% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.17 | 76.05% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.17 | 75.98% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.17 | 76.04% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.17 | 75.99% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.17 | 75.91% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.17 | 76.11% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.17 | 76.51% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 2.3% #d32ee6 0.0% classified 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% #8847ff 0.5% Mythical 0.0% violet 1.4% #4b69ff 12.1% milspec 23.8% uncommon 5.9% Rare 32.3% blue 21.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.05 on average: an expected loss of $24.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt