---
title: "Тайное case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Тайное ($94.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 64.50% from 106 items with odds, observed 74.98% over 1,062 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Тайное](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Тайное

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert?window=all)

Price · $94.99

Advertised RTP · 64.50% · EV $61.27 from 106 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.98% · 1,062 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 50 openings · below min

7 days · 77.41% ±9.10 817 openings

30 days · 74.98% ±8.20 1,062 openings

since tracking started · 74.98% ±8.20 1,062 openings

36.5% 74.5% 112.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 65.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (66.78% – 83.18%, 1,062 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert?window=24h) | 50 | 74.51% ±37.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert?window=7d) | 817 | 77.41% ±9.10 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert) | 1,062 | 74.98% ±8.20 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/covert?window=all) | 1,062 | 74.98% ±8.20 | +2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 106 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,062 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 9,997 | $7,581 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 9,996 | $6,771 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 9,986 | $4,541 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,978 | $3,892 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,951 | $2,970 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,882 | $2,204 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 9,226 | $1,149 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,972 | $1,036 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,918 | $1,016 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 7,438 | $716 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 7,019 | $667 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,954 | $569 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 5,270 | $518 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 4,466 | $464 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 2,396 | $335 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,128 | $243 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 956 | $227 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 767 | $208 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 735 | $204 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 692 | $199 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 626 | $191 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 520 | $177 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 475 | $171 | 0.6% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.79× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 438 | $165 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $164 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 417 | $162 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 387 | $156 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 280 | $136 | 0.8% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $120 | 0.9% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198 | $116 | 1.0% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $115 | 1.0% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $113 | 1.0% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.43× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $111 | 1.0% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.73× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $111 | 1.0% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180 | $110 | 1.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 178 | $110 | 1.0% | 1 | 6.0 | 0.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 173 | $108 | 1.0% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 171 | $107 | 1.0% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $105 | 1.1% | 11 | 6.5 | 1.69× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 160 | $104 | 1.1% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $101 | 1.1% | 1 | 7.0 | 0.14× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 148 | $99.71 | 1.1% | 1 | 7.2 | 0.14× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $98.94 | 1.1% | 13 | 7.3 | 1.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142 | $97.36 | 1.1% | 13 | 7.5 | 1.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $95.26 | 1.1% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $94.63 | 1.1% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $93.88 | 1.2% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 128 | $91.77 | 1.2% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 113 | $85.35 | 1.2% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $81.94 | 1.3% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $79.15 | 1.3% | 4 | 10.5 | 0.38× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $78.23 | 1.3% | 3 | 10.7 | 0.28× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $77.97 | 1.3% | 7 | 10.7 | 0.65× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $77.59 | 1.3% | 7 | 10.8 | 0.65× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $76.70 | 1.3% | 1 | 11.0 | 0.09× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $75.79 | 1.3% | 13 | 11.2 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $75.38 | 1.3% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $75.08 | 1.3% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $74.39 | 1.3% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $74.01 | 1.3% | 12 | 11.5 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $72.12 | 1.3% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.17× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $70.56 | 1.3% | 16 | 12.2 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $65.68 | 1.3% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $64.52 | 1.3% | 18 | 13.6 | 1.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $63.34 | 1.3% | 15 | 13.8 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $61.12 | 1.3% | 7 | 14.3 | 0.49× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $60.93 | 1.3% | 16 | 14.4 | 1.11× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $57.58 | 1.3% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $56.89 | 1.3% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $56.56 | 1.3% | 23 | 15.3 | 1.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $53.04 | 1.3% | 15 | 16.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $52.68 | 1.3% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $51.77 | 1.3% | 10 | 16.3 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $51.36 | 1.3% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $51.14 | 1.3% | 16 | 16.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $50.73 | 1.3% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $48.57 | 1.3% | 17 | 16.9 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $45.94 | 1.2% | 0 | 17.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $44.54 | 1.2% | 15 | 17.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $43.24 | 1.2% | 12 | 17.7 | 0.68× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $41.54 | 1.1% | 26 | 17.9 | 1.45× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $40.63 | 1.1% | 17 | 18.0 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $39.83 | 1.1% | 20 | 18.0 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $39.83 | 1.1% | 16 | 18.0 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $39.17 | 1.1% | 26 | 18.1 | 1.44× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $38.24 | 1.1% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $37.55 | 1.0% | 18 | 18.1 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $36.29 | 1.0% | 25 | 18.1 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $35.81 | 1.0% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $35.04 | 1.0% | 26 | 18.1 | 1.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $33.55 | 0.9% | 16 | 18.1 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $33.46 | 0.9% | 24 | 18.1 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $32.87 | 0.9% | 11 | 18.0 | 0.61× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $32.71 | 0.9% | 13 | 18.0 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $32.57 | 0.9% | 11 | 18.0 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $32.43 | 0.9% | 10 | 18.0 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $31.85 | 0.9% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $31.18 | 0.9% | 4 | 17.9 | 0.22× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $30.73 | 0.8% | 25 | 17.8 | 1.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $30.47 | 0.8% | 5 | 17.8 | 0.28× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $30.45 | 0.8% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $30.13 | 0.8% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $29.56 | 0.8% | 4 | 17.6 | 0.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $29.25 | 0.8% | 6 | 17.6 | 0.34× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $28.62 | 0.8% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $28.60 | 0.8% | 1 | 17.5 | 0.06× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $94.99 $7,688 80.93x 2026-11-04 22:19 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $94.99 $1,755 18.47x 2026-11-04 18:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $94.99 $689 7.26x 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [B4RMEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/B4RMEN) $94.99 $562 5.91x 2026-11-10 23:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=covert)

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [Globe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Globe) $94.99 $39.88 0.42x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $94.99 $29.87 0.31x 2026-11-11 10:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [240 km/h peek хасбулла](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/240%20km%2Fh%20peek%20%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B0) $94.99 $39.86 0.42x 2026-11-11 10:10 UTC

[P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $94.99 $94.72 1.00x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC

[M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $94.99 $31.69 0.33x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC

[Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-field-tested) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $94.99 $77.71 0.82x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[AWP | Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $94.99 $75.11 0.79x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $94.99 $31.83 0.34x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-minimal-wear) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $94.99 $112 1.18x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [Loading...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Loading...) $94.99 $30.56 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $94.99 | 64.50% | 106 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $94.99 | 64.35% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $94.99 | 64.34% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $94.99 | 64.59% | 105 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $94.99 | 64.87% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $94.99 | 64.87% | 106 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $94.99 | 64.86% | 105 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $94.99 | 64.91% | 104 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $94.99 | 64.97% | 105 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 104 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $94.99 | 65.31% | 104 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $94.99 | 65.30% | 104 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 105 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 102 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 102 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 104 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $94.99 | 65.31% | 104 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $94.99 | 65.32% | 105 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 104 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 104 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $94.99 | 65.27% | 103 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $94.99 | 65.37% | 102 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $94.99 | 65.67% | 103 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $94.99 | 65.68% | 102 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $94.99 | 65.60% | 102 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $94.99 | 65.33% | 102 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $94.99 | 65.41% | 103 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $94.99 | 65.41% | 102 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $94.99 | 65.41% | 102 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $94.99 | 65.39% | 102 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 58.0% contraband 0.0% epic 0.1% red 18.6% #eb4b4b 1.1% Covert 1.1% rare 2.9% Ancient 16.6% uncommon 1.6% best hit $7,688 (80.93x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 64.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $64.50 on average: an expected loss of $35.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt