---
title: "Осенний уют case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Осенний уют ($0.10) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.70% from 28 items with odds, observed 102.78% over 292 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Осенний уют](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Осенний уют

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn?window=all)

Price · $0.10

Advertised RTP · 74.70% · EV $0.07 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.78% · 292 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 41 openings · below min

7 days · 101.18% ±8.59 234 openings

30 days · 102.78% ±7.63 292 openings

since tracking started · 102.78% ±7.63 292 openings

65.0% 88.0% 111.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.15% – 110.41%, 292 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn?window=24h) | 41 | 86.44% ±21.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn?window=7d) | 234 | 101.18% ±8.59 | +5.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn) | 292 | 102.78% ±7.63 | +7.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/cozyautumn?window=all) | 292 | 102.78% ±7.63 | +7.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 9,638 | $3.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 8,455 | $1.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 8,268 | $1.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 6,508 | $1.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 4,791 | $1.04 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 4,198 | $0.96 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 3,538 | $0.87 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) | 1 in 3,089 | $0.82 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 2,956 | $0.80 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 762 | $0.46 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-well-worn) | 1 in 703 | $0.45 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 495 | $0.39 | 1.1% | 4 | 0.6 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $0.22 | 2.8% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.74× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $0.20 | 3.3% | 7 | 3.6 | 1.93× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $0.17 | 4.0% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.14 | 5.2% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.08× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.12 | 6.1% | 14 | 11.5 | 1.22× |
| [M249 \| Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-bock-blocks-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.10 | 6.9% | 17 | 15.8 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.09 | 7.3% | 18 | 18.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.08 | 7.4% | 21 | 19.4 | 1.09× |
| [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 1 in 13 | $0.07 | 7.4% | 34 | 22.0 | 1.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.07 | 7.4% | 6 | 22.7 | 0.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.06 | 7.2% | 26 | 25.6 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.06 | 7.1% | 54 | 26.1 | 2.07× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.05 | 6.4% | 0 | 27.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.05 | 6.1% | 0 | 28.3 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $0.04 | 5.0% | 0 | 28.2 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-arctic-camo-panels-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.04 | 4.8% | 0 | 28.1 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=cozyautumn)

[Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [Luci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luci) $0.10 $0.07 0.73x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) [Luci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luci) $0.10 $0.09 0.85x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) [Luci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luci) $0.10 $0.05 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) [Luci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Luci) $0.10 $0.13 1.28x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-bock-blocks-field-tested) [Slow Bodi Flow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slow%20Bodi%20Flow) $0.10 $0.08 0.83x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC

[P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-field-tested) [ADANTE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ADANTE) $0.10 $0.12 1.22x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [ADANTE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ADANTE) $0.10 $0.07 0.75x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) [ADANTE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ADANTE) $0.10 $0.07 0.74x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [ADANTE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ADANTE) $0.10 $0.06 0.60x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) [ADANTE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ADANTE) $0.10 $0.07 0.72x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.10 | 74.70% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.10 | 74.63% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.36% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.29% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.10 | 74.65% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.10 | 74.93% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.85% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.90% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.89% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.10 | 74.84% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.10 | 75.45% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.10 | 75.49% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.10 | 75.52% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.53% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.48% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.10 | 75.51% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.57% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.53% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.46% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.45% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.58% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 75.45% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.55% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.10 | 75.81% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.10 | 75.80% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.65% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.44% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.69% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.10 | 75.62% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.10 | 75.60% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% #8847ff 0.1% Mythical 0.0% violet 0.4% #4b69ff 18.1% restricted 0.0% common 0.1% milspec 31.8% blue 4.0% Rare 7.4% Uncommon 9.4% industrial 19.0% consumer 9.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.70 on average: an expected loss of $25.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt