---
title: "Danger Zone case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Danger Zone ($0.53) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.47% from 16 items with odds, observed 97.96% over 1,280 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Danger Zone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Danger Zone

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone?window=all)

Price · $0.53

Advertised RTP · 76.47% · EV $0.41 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.96% · 1,280 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 126.26% ±18.87 158 openings

7 days · 103.05% ±7.98 930 openings

30 days · 97.96% ±6.82 1,280 openings

since tracking started · 97.96% ±6.82 1,280 openings

75.5% 110.8% 146.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.05% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.14% – 104.78%, 1,280 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone?window=24h) | 158 | 126.26% ±18.9 | +5.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone?window=7d) | 930 | 103.05% ±7.98 | +6.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone) | 1,280 | 97.96% ±6.82 | +6.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dangerzone?window=all) | 1,280 | 97.96% ±6.82 | +6.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,280 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,866 | $41.07 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 9,852 | $39.70 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 1,331 | $5.19 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,049 | $4.73 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 720 | $4.11 | 1.4% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.81× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.79 | 12.7% | 1 | 83.3 | 0.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.56 | 12.7% | 196 | 117.9 | 1.66× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.52 | 12.3% | 188 | 122.9 | 1.53× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.51 | 12.1% | 152 | 123.5 | 1.23× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.45 | 11.1% | 174 | 129.6 | 1.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 6.0% | 42 | 119.6 | 0.35× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.25 | 5.7% | 18 | 117.4 | 0.15× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.25 | 5.7% | 49 | 117.2 | 0.42× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.25 | 5.7% | 69 | 117.2 | 0.59× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.25 | 5.6% | 68 | 116.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.23 | 4.8% | 69 | 110.6 | 0.62× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [嫉妒Moutty](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E5%AB%89%E5%A6%92Moutty) $0.53 $41.49 78.28x 2026-11-07 21:19 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Gugugagich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Gugugagich) $0.53 $39.61 74.74x 2026-11-10 18:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dangerzone)

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-field-tested) [INTEL-KILL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/INTEL-KILL) $0.53 $0.25 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.79 1.49x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.23 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-field-tested) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.25 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.53 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[G3SG1 | Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.45 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.53 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.53 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.53 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) [MR\_pResidenT(business\_)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MR_pResidenT%28business_%29) $0.53 $0.26 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.53 | 76.47% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.53 | 76.11% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.53 | 75.97% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.53 | 75.79% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.53 | 76.23% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.53 | 76.52% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.53 | 76.48% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.53 | 76.54% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.53 | 76.63% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.53 | 76.60% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.53 | 77.16% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.53 | 77.13% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.53 | 77.13% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.53 | 77.04% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.53 | 77.09% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.53 | 77.19% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 77.27% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 77.07% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.53 | 77.03% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.53 | 77.02% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 77.01% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 77.08% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.53 | 77.15% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.53 | 77.45% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.53 | 77.44% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.53 | 77.38% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.53 | 77.20% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.53 | 77.19% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.53 | 77.27% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.53 | 77.18% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Legendary 0.2% classified 0.1% restricted 35.0% violet 10.1% mil spec 54.6% best hit $41.49 (78.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.47 on average: an expected loss of $23.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt