---
title: "DaniDropper case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "DaniDropper ($9.49) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 80.20% over 984 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [DaniDropper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · DaniDropper

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper?window=all)

Price · $9.49

Advertised RTP · 76.50% · EV $7.26 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.20% · 984 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.96% ±10.47 120 openings

7 days · 80.53% ±3.98 832 openings

30 days · 80.20% ±3.70 984 openings

since tracking started · 80.20% ±3.70 984 openings

67.0% 78.0% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper?window=24h) | 120 | 77.96% ±10.5 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper?window=7d) | 832 | 80.53% ±3.98 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper) | 984 | 80.20% ±3.70 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/danidropper?window=all) | 984 | 80.20% ±3.70 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 984 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 167,799 | $456 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78,853 | $228 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 76,803 | $225 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58,297 | $196 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 48,017 | $179 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25,308 | $138 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,029 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,014 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 10,317 | $99.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,575 | $93.16 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 6,201 | $83.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 5,717 | $80.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,434 | $67.85 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,401 | $60.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 1,335 | $49.05 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 694 | $39.13 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 630 | $37.82 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 577 | $36.68 | 0.9% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 354 | $30.88 | 1.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.44× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 267 | $27.93 | 1.4% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $19.06 | 2.7% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $16.59 | 3.4% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $12.96 | 4.6% | 25 | 25.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $11.87 | 5.1% | 25 | 30.6 | 0.82× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $11.50 | 5.2% | 14 | 32.6 | 0.43× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $10.61 | 5.6% | 30 | 37.9 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $9.51 | 6.1% | 41 | 45.9 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $8.78 | 6.4% | 6 | 52.1 | 0.12× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 18 | $8.64 | 6.5% | 49 | 53.4 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $8.33 | 6.6% | 54 | 56.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.13 | 6.8% | 77 | 68.5 | 1.12× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $6.45 | 6.8% | 66 | 75.7 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $4.56 | 5.9% | 110 | 92.2 | 1.19× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.22 | 5.5% | 105 | 93.5 | 1.12× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $3.99 | 5.2% | 96 | 93.9 | 1.02× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $3.94 | 5.2% | 23 | 94.0 | 0.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $3.71 | 4.9% | 76 | 93.8 | 0.81× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=danidropper)

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) [я акула, i che?](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%8F%20%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B0%2C%20i%20che%3F) $9.49 $4.56 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) [HyKAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HyKAC) $9.49 $12.96 1.37x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) [MindFree](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MindFree) $9.49 $8.33 0.88x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [MindFree](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MindFree) $9.49 $8.78 0.93x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $9.49 $8.78 0.93x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

[Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $9.49 $8.33 0.88x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $9.49 $3.71 0.39x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $9.49 $7.13 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $9.49 $7.13 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $9.49 $6.45 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $9.49 | 76.50% | 37 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $9.49 | 76.30% | 37 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $9.49 | 76.15% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $9.49 | 76.13% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $9.49 | 76.39% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $9.49 | 76.75% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.77% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.75% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.81% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.87% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $9.49 | 77.29% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $9.49 | 77.26% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $9.49 | 77.26% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $9.49 | 77.31% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.28% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.28% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.22% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.35% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $9.49 | 77.70% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $9.49 | 77.70% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.60% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.41% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.37% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $9.49 | 77.39% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% sunny 0.0% classified 36.2% rare 6.5% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 6.5% red 0.3% pink 0.2% Ancient 0.2% mil spec 3.3% Mythical 5.3% Restricted 5.7% #8847ff 7.0% Legendary 19.1% violet 9.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.50 on average: an expected loss of $23.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt