---
title: "Dark case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dark ($0.13) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 71.66% from 29 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Dark](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Dark

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark?window=all)

Price · $0.13

Advertised RTP · 71.66% · EV $0.09 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dark?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 199,806 | $57.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162,166 | $9.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 84,166 | $5.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 35,387 | $3.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 35,009 | $3.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 34,807 | $3.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 24,657 | $2.96 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 18,982 | $2.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 5,706 | $1.75 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,623 | $1.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 3,192 | $1.44 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 1,713 | $1.16 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,496 | $1.11 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 750 | $0.88 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 550 | $0.79 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-well-worn) | 1 in 171 | $0.52 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $0.38 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $0.37 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $0.35 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.25 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.21 | 13.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 17.2% | $0.10 | 18.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 18.8% | $0.08 | 17.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Hieroglyph (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-hieroglyph-field-tested) | 16.4% | $0.04 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.02 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.02 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.01 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | \<$0.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | \<$0.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dark)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 71.66% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.47% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.45% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.79% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 72.01% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.00% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.15% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 71.93% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.09% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 72.60% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 72.56% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 72.46% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.55% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.40% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.59% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.58% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.49% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.52% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.44% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.41% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.40% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.59% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 72.90% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 73.05% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.88% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.68% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.67% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.60% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 72.63% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.13 | 72.59% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 1.5% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 0.0% #8847ff 0.1% restricted 0.0% Rare 0.0% Mythical 0.3% mil spec 4.2% blue 0.6% milspec 20.2% violet 1.8% #4b69ff 23.3% consumer 40.5% #777777 7.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 71.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $71.66 on average: an expected loss of $28.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt