---
title: "Тёмное фэнтези case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Тёмное фэнтези ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 70.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 74.96% over 5,151 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Тёмное фэнтези](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Тёмное фэнтези

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 70.50% · EV $7.75 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.96% · 5,151 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 73.27% ±4.86 809 openings

7 days · 76.06% ±2.16 4,128 openings

30 days · 74.96% ±1.93 5,151 openings

since tracking started · 74.96% ±1.93 5,151 openings

68.0% 73.5% 79.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 71.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (73.04% – 76.89%, 5,151 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy?window=24h) | 809 | 73.27% ±4.86 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy?window=7d) | 4,128 | 76.06% ±2.16 | +4.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy) | 5,151 | 74.96% ±1.93 | +3.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/darkfantasy?window=all) | 5,151 | 74.96% ±1.93 | +3.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,194 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,560 | $319 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,277 | $267 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,509 | $204 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-big-swell-field-tested) | 1 in 7,702 | $171 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 5,959 | $130 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 4,030 | $99.80 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $91.77 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-well-worn) | 1 in 2,733 | $81.94 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,758 | $67.61 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 1,497 | $63.34 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 844 | $50.73 | 0.8% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 382 | $37.82 | 1.3% | 9 | 13.6 | 0.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 207 | $30.13 | 1.9% | 5 | 25.1 | 0.20× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $29.95 | 1.9% | 19 | 25.5 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $22.19 | 3.1% | 58 | 55.4 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $16.23 | 4.6% | 90 | 115.3 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $15.56 | 4.9% | 142 | 126.2 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $12.40 | 6.1% | 179 | 196.7 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $12.21 | 6.1% | 203 | 202.0 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $9.91 | 6.9% | 285 | 279.7 | 1.02× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $9.77 | 6.9% | 168 | 285.4 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.68 | 7.1% | 326 | 371.8 | 0.88× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $6.49 | 6.7% | 435 | 418.3 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $6.32 | 6.7% | 56 | 423.9 | 0.13× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $5.95 | 6.4% | 492 | 435.1 | 1.13× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $5.62 | 6.2% | 355 | 443.1 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $5.54 | 6.1% | 23 | 444.7 | 0.05× |
| [AWP \| Black Box (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.32 | 4.8% | 327 | 450.3 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.70 | 4.0% | 329 | 434.4 | 0.76× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.53 | 3.7% | 223 | 427.1 | 0.52× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=darkfantasy)

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [Mersedes-Benz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mersedes-Benz) $10.99 $3.70 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $10.99 $7.98 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $10.99 $5.83 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Tatter (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-minimal-wear) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $10.99 $6.61 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[AWP | Black Box (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-field-tested) [CETC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CETC) $10.99 $4.17 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[AWP | Black Box (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-field-tested) [Mersedes-Benz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mersedes-Benz) $10.99 $4.17 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $10.99 $6.34 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $10.99 $7.98 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [deed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/deed) $10.99 $11.98 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $10.99 $6.34 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 70.50% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 70.35% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 70.33% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 70.60% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 70.91% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.92% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.91% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.97% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 71.02% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 71.40% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 71.38% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 71.41% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 71.40% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.39% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.43% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.41% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.35% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.47% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 71.80% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 71.80% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.71% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.43% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.51% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.49% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 71.50% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 71.46% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% sunny 0.0% epic 0.0% rare 0.5% covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% classified 24.3% pink 8.4% Ancient 0.5% Mythical 7.2% restricted 25.1% violet 16.9% #8847ff 8.6% #4b69ff 8.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 70.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $70.50 on average: an expected loss of $29.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt