---
title: "Dead man's chest case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dead man's chest ($0.34) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.09% from 33 items with odds, observed 75.74% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Dead man's chest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Dead man's chest

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest?window=all)

Price · $0.34

Advertised RTP · 76.09% · EV $0.26 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.74% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

-0.5% 100.5% 201.5%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest?window=7d) | 4 | 75.74% ±125.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest) | 4 | 75.74% ±125.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/deadmanschest?window=all) | 4 | 75.74% ±125.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 199,828 | $136 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,045 | $76.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 186,677 | $31.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94,935 | $12.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88,923 | $12.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 57,043 | $9.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21,868 | $6.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19,452 | $6.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 11,599 | $5.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 6,836 | $4.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 4,619 | $3.70 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 3,587 | $3.39 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 2,416 | $2.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-well-worn) | 1 in 2,393 | $2.95 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 962 | $2.16 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 639 | $1.88 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 523 | $1.75 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 494 | $1.72 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 324 | $1.48 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $1.30 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $0.87 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.56 | 8.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.49 | 9.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.40 | 12.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.37 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $0.31 | 13.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-minimal-wear) | 13.6% | $0.26 | 13.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 15.2% | $0.11 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 12.9% | $0.08 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.06 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.03 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=deadmanschest)

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) [UR MOM IS GAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UR%20MOM%20IS%20GAY) $0.34 $0.08 0.24x 2026-11-04 15:50 UTC

[Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) [UR MOM IS GAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UR%20MOM%20IS%20GAY) $0.34 $0.51 1.50x 2026-11-04 15:50 UTC

[Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) [UR MOM IS GAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UR%20MOM%20IS%20GAY) $0.34 $0.36 1.06x 2026-11-04 15:50 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [UR MOM IS GAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UR%20MOM%20IS%20GAY) $0.34 $0.08 0.22x 2026-11-04 15:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.34 | 76.09% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.34 | 75.83% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.34 | 75.89% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.34 | 76.20% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.34 | 76.48% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.34 | 76.49% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.34 | 76.47% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.34 | 76.51% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.34 | 76.61% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.34 | 77.03% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.34 | 77.07% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.34 | 77.01% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.34 | 77.07% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.34 | 77.03% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.34 | 77.03% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.34 | 77.08% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.34 | 77.00% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.34 | 77.10% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.34 | 77.06% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.34 | 77.02% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.34 | 77.06% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.34 | 77.09% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.34 | 77.38% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.34 | 77.43% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.34 | 77.32% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.34 | 77.07% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.34 | 77.20% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.34 | 77.22% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.34 | 77.14% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.34 | 77.15% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 8.6% red 0.0% covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% pink 0.0% #8847ff 4.2% restricted 6.2% violet 0.2% Rare 10.3% Mythical 1.3% #4b69ff 7.8% mil spec 11.3% blue 13.6% milspec 28.1% consumer 6.4% Common 1.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.09 on average: an expected loss of $23.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt