---
title: "DEXONTV case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DEXONTV ($2.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.31% from 31 items with odds, observed 75.82% over 1,034 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [DEXONTV](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · DEXONTV

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon?window=all)

Price · $2.99

Advertised RTP · 76.31% · EV $2.28 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.82% · 1,034 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89 openings · below min

7 days · 75.50% ±5.21 767 openings

30 days · 75.82% ±4.48 1,034 openings

since tracking started · 75.82% ±4.48 1,034 openings

49.5% 65.5% 81.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon?window=24h) | 89 | 65.66% ±15.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon?window=7d) | 767 | 75.50% ±5.21 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon) | 1,034 | 75.82% ±4.48 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dexon?window=all) | 1,034 | 75.82% ±4.48 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,034 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 131,038 | $135 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 129,473 | $133 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 114,477 | $120 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 97,565 | $107 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 94,193 | $105 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86,058 | $99.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 78,183 | $94.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 55,561 | $79.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 50,378 | $75.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 9,426 | $39.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 9,289 | $39.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,365 | $27.93 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 684 | $16.15 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 663 | $15.98 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 647 | $15.85 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 1 in 540 | $14.88 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 214 | $10.72 | 2.2% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $10.35 | 2.3% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $9.71 | 2.6% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $5.19 | 6.6% | 11 | 30.0 | 0.37× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.13 | 6.7% | 37 | 30.8 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $4.21 | 8.1% | 0 | 45.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $3.63 | 9.1% | 75 | 59.0 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.88 | 9.9% | 111 | 81.1 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 10.5% | $1.96 | 9.0% | 93 | 108.8 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 10.5% | $1.95 | 9.0% | 155 | 109.0 | 1.42× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $1.53 | 7.4% | 9 | 114.0 | 0.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 10.7% | $1.25 | 5.9% | 147 | 110.5 | 1.33× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 10.6% | $1.21 | 5.6% | 159 | 109.5 | 1.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 10.3% | $1.12 | 5.1% | 54 | 106.5 | 0.51× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 10.2% | $1.10 | 4.9% | 12 | 105.6 | 0.11× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dexon)

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) [Daisyke Naratano](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Daisyke%20Naratano) $2.99 $1.10 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [datss](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/datss) $2.99 $3.68 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) [datss](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/datss) $2.99 $1.25 0.42x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) [datss](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/datss) $2.99 $1.52 0.51x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) [Gerysv](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Gerysv) $2.99 $1.10 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) [Gerysv](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Gerysv) $2.99 $1.21 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:31 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) [-𝙬𝙚𝙥𝙡𝙤𝙦𝙚](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%F0%9D%99%AC%F0%9D%99%9A%F0%9D%99%A5%F0%9D%99%A1%F0%9D%99%A4%F0%9D%99%A6%F0%9D%99%9A) $2.99 $1.13 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) [USHARA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/USHARA) $2.99 $1.12 0.37x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) [HyKAC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HyKAC) $2.99 $1.21 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [J u n 10 R\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/J%20u%20n%2010%20R*-3102145) $2.99 $1.95 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.99 | 76.31% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.99 | 76.14% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.99 | 75.90% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.99 | 75.92% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.99 | 76.26% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.99 | 76.56% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.54% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.52% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.61% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.72% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.99 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.99 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.99 | 77.11% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.99 | 77.03% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.99 | 77.10% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.99 | 77.15% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.11% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.04% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.09% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.16% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.10% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.05% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.13% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.99 | 77.44% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.99 | 77.47% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.40% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.11% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.14% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.21% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.99 | 77.24% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 3.8% #d32ee6 0.1% blue 0.2% Classified 0.2% pink 10.8% Rare 11.0% Legendary 7.3% restricted 45.9% Mythical 10.5% #8847ff 10.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.31 on average: an expected loss of $23.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt