---
title: "Кибер-осень case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Кибер-осень ($53.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.63% from 29 items with odds, observed 70.29% over 19 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Кибер-осень](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Кибер-осень

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn?window=all)

Price · $53.99

Advertised RTP · 76.63% · EV $41.37 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 70.29% · 19 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 16 openings · below min

30 days · 19 openings · below min

since tracking started · 19 openings · below min

31.0% 67.0% 103.0%

**Small sample.** 19 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn?window=7d) | 16 | 66.75% ±35.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn) | 19 | 70.29% ±32.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/digitalautumn?window=all) | 19 | 70.29% ±32.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 8,799 | $1,149 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,767 | $1,138 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,351 | $1,016 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,517 | $855 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-field-tested) | 1 in 6,456 | $722 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 4,509 | $553 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 3,640 | $489 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 2,526 | $410 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,388 | $319 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 753 | $252 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-field-tested) | 1 in 447 | $208 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 262 | $171 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $98.94 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $85.35 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $75.08 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $72.83 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $72.26 | 5.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $67.61 | 5.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $60.93 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $52.68 | 6.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $47.99 | 6.9% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.34× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $38.24 | 7.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $33.55 | 6.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $32.71 | 6.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $32.57 | 6.6% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $23.00 | 5.0% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $19.36 | 4.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $19.25 | 4.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $18.89 | 3.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=digitalautumn)

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [GLADIATOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GLADIATOR) $53.99 $67.44 1.25x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) [zaken1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/zaken1) $53.99 $32.91 0.61x 2026-11-10 11:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) [zaken1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/zaken1) $53.99 $45.65 0.85x 2026-11-10 11:57 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) [zaken1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/zaken1) $53.99 $71.21 1.32x 2026-11-10 11:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) [Комбастер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80) $53.99 $19.48 0.36x 2026-11-08 09:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) [Комбастер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80) $53.99 $19.48 0.36x 2026-11-08 09:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) [Комбастер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80) $53.99 $46.69 0.86x 2026-11-08 09:28 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [Комбастер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80) $53.99 $38.58 0.71x 2026-11-08 09:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) [Комбастер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80) $53.99 $25.36 0.47x 2026-11-08 08:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [Комбастер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80) $53.99 $19.37 0.36x 2026-11-08 08:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $53.99 | 76.63% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.45% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.43% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.73% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $53.99 | 77.07% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.07% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.06% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.12% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.19% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $53.99 | 77.58% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.55% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.67% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $53.99 | 78.02% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $53.99 | 78.03% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.94% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $53.99 | 77.72% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $53.99 | 77.68% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.5% restricted 3.0% sunny 0.0% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.0% covert knife 0.1% Immortal 0.2% red 13.3% classified 38.8% Ancient 8.4% rare 8.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.63 on average: an expected loss of $23.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt