---
title: "donk case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "donk ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.85% from 37 items with odds, observed 87.01% over 14.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [donk](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · donk

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 75.85% · EV $0.51 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.01% · 14.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.38% ±11.29 1,415 openings

7 days · 86.56% ±4.02 11.5K openings

30 days · 87.01% ±3.57 14.6K openings

since tracking started · 87.01% ±3.57 14.6K openings

73.5% 85.5% 97.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.44% – 90.57%, 14,563 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk?window=24h) | 1,415 | 85.38% ±11.3 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk?window=7d) | 11.5K | 86.56% ±4.02 | +4.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk) | 14.6K | 87.01% ±3.57 | +5.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/donk?window=all) | 14.6K | 87.01% ±3.57 | +5.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 9,996 | $94.01 | 1.9% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,993 | $77.05 | 1.5% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 9,982 | $55.53 | 1.1% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.74× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 9,908 | $31.93 | 0.6% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.40× |
| [Charm \| Quick Silver charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-quick-silver) | 1 in 9,901 | $31.16 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 9,295 | $15.85 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 8,364 | $11.55 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 5,311 | $6.97 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,738 | $6.45 | 0.3% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 4,191 | $5.99 | 0.3% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 2,717 | $4.79 | 0.3% | 14 | 5.4 | 2.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 1,967 | $4.15 | 0.4% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 1,492 | $3.71 | 0.5% | 5 | 9.8 | 0.51× |
| [Charm \| Piñatita charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinatita) | 1 in 937 | $3.09 | 0.6% | 38 | 15.6 | 2.44× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $1.95 | 1.4% | 55 | 53.1 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $1.77 | 1.6% | 54 | 67.9 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 205 | $1.74 | 1.7% | 51 | 71.3 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $1.18 | 3.0% | 227 | 187.1 | 1.21× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $0.87 | 4.2% | 603 | 354.8 | 1.70× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.87 | 4.1% | 542 | 350.5 | 1.55× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.87 | 4.1% | 92 | 349.1 | 0.26× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 35 | $0.79 | 4.5% | 626 | 420.1 | 1.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.64 | 5.0% | 916 | 581.9 | 1.57× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.54 | 5.1% | 729 | 701.9 | 1.04× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.53 | 5.1% | 962 | 718.5 | 1.34× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Chomper charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-chomper) | 1 in 18 | $0.47 | 5.1% | 1,054 | 794.3 | 1.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.41 | 4.8% | 335 | 862.7 | 0.39× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.41 | 4.8% | 528 | 864.8 | 0.61× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.38 | 4.5% | 991 | 894.3 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.37 | 4.5% | 883 | 898.7 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.36 | 4.4% | 1,152 | 904.7 | 1.27× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.36 | 4.4% | 492 | 904.3 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.34 | 4.2% | 449 | 913.2 | 0.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.34 | 4.1% | 212 | 916.6 | 0.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.33 | 4.1% | 293 | 917.9 | 0.32× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.26 | 3.2% | 275 | 901.8 | 0.30× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.25 | 3.0% | 981 | 889.5 | 1.10× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Дабстеп молитва](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%94%D0%B0%D0%B1%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BF%20%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B0) $0.67 $97.33 145.3x 2026-11-05 21:16 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Morok](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Morok) $0.67 $95.37 142.3x 2026-11-08 09:04 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Fraise](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Fraise) $0.67 $93.36 139.3x 2026-11-08 12:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [грейс\_лох\_2003](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%D1%81_%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%85_2003) $0.67 $77.65 115.9x 2026-11-08 15:33 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [AeXe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/AeXe) $0.67 $77.63 115.9x 2026-11-10 18:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [calango](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/calango) $0.67 $77.54 115.7x 2026-11-04 01:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [Ecl1pse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ecl1pse) $0.67 $77.09 115.1x 2026-11-07 18:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [Vlador](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vlador) $0.67 $76.85 114.7x 2026-11-07 22:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [Ar4i\_108](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Ar4i_108) $0.67 $59.57 88.91x 2026-11-08 12:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [Skyf](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Skyf) $0.67 $57.21 85.39x 2026-11-04 12:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=donk)

[P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.37 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.61 0.91x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.54 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.37 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-field-tested) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.41 0.61x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.37 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.37 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.37 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $1.78 2.66x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) [Penguin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Penguin) $0.67 $0.37 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.67 | 75.85% | 37 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.67% | 37 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.47% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.42% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.81% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.10% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.15% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.12% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.12% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.24% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 76.99% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 77.02% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.99% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.75% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.78% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.1% pink 0.1% restricted 12.3% uncommon 0.0% violet 4.9% #d32ce6 0.1% #8847ff 14.9% blue 6.7% Rare 6.8% Mythical 15.0% #4b69ff 8.3% mil spec 24.6% Restricted 6.2% best hit $97.33 (145.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.85 on average: an expected loss of $24.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt