---
title: "Doppler mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Doppler mining ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 65.01% from 11 items with odds, observed 369.93% over 3,802 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Doppler mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Doppler mining

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 65.01% · EV $0.90 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 369.93% · 3,802 openings, odds method

Variance · 74.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 202 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 240 openings · below min

7 days · 299.25% ±31.61 2,894 openings

30 days · 369.93% ±27.56 3,802 openings

since tracking started · 369.93% ±27.56 3,802 openings

47.0% 222.5% 398.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 65.62% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (342.37% – 397.48%, 3,802 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining?window=24h) | 240 | 156.59% ±108.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining?window=7d) | 2,894 | 299.25% ±31.6 | +14.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining) | 3,802 | 369.93% ±27.6 | +21.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dopplermining?window=all) | 3,802 | 369.93% ±27.6 | +21.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,812 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,810 | $433 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,298 | $354 | 9.1% | 5 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,685 | $228 | 15.0% | 13 | 2.3 | 5.75× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 253 | $115 | 50.2% | 114 | 15.1 | 7.55× |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 36.2% | $0.27 | 10.7% | 3,634 | 1381.6 | 2.63× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.15 | 3.3% | 0 | 763.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 13.3% | $0.10 | 1.4% | 0 | 506.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 0 | 355.8 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 0 | 358.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 226.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 200.8 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) [pancc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pancc) $1.39 $433 311.4x 2026-11-04 00:03 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) [SpectraL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SpectraL) $1.39 $421 303.1x 2026-11-03 20:36 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [ihuntnoobs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ihuntnoobs) $1.39 $370 266.2x 2026-11-07 13:56 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [➳𝘽𝙖𝙙.𝘽𝙤𝙮ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9E%B3%F0%9D%98%BD%F0%9D%99%96%F0%9D%99%99.%F0%9D%98%BD%F0%9D%99%A4%F0%9D%99%AE%E3%83%84) $1.39 $370 266.1x 2026-11-03 22:36 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [➳𝘽𝙖𝙙.𝘽𝙤𝙮ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9E%B3%F0%9D%98%BD%F0%9D%99%96%F0%9D%99%99.%F0%9D%98%BD%F0%9D%99%A4%F0%9D%99%AE%E3%83%84) $1.39 $370 266.1x 2026-11-03 22:36 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [pancc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pancc) $1.39 $363 260.9x 2026-11-08 20:16 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [pancc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pancc) $1.39 $363 260.9x 2026-11-08 20:01 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/XM1NN) $1.39 $244 175.5x 2026-11-04 01:30 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Renshy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Renshy) $1.39 $244 175.5x 2026-11-04 05:48 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) [DinoDick](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DinoDick) $1.39 $243 175.0x 2026-11-04 14:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dopplermining)

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [21](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/21) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [21](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/21) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [21](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/21) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [21](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/21) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [21](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/21) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [21](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/21) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [yokithai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/yokithai) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [yokithai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/yokithai) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [aleksandrgrsh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/aleksandrgrsh) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [aleksandrgrsh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/aleksandrgrsh) $1.39 $0.26 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 65.01% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 64.86% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.70% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.69% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.91% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 65.22% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.22% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.22% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.27% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.31% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 65.65% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 65.64% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.67% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.62% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.72% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 66.03% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 66.01% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.94% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.77% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.77% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 65.77% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 36.2% 2 20.0% sunny 0.4% #ffd700 0.1% industrial 28.6% Uncommon 9.3% #87c7ff 5.3% best hit $433 (311.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 65.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $65.01 on average: an expected loss of $34.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt