---
title: "Dreams & Nightmares Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dreams & Nightmares Case ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.41% from 13 items with odds, observed 80.73% over 2,656 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Dreams & Nightmares Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Dreams & Nightmares Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 75.41% · EV $8.29 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.73% · 2,656 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 67.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 65.87% ±16.47 172 openings

7 days · 79.84% ±4.67 2,521 openings

30 days · 80.73% ±4.54 2,656 openings

since tracking started · 80.73% ±4.54 2,656 openings

48.5% 67.3% 86.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.19% – 85.28%, 2,656 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase?window=24h) | 172 | 65.87% ±16.5 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase?window=7d) | 2,521 | 79.84% ±4.67 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase) | 2,656 | 80.73% ±4.54 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dreamsnightmarescase?window=all) | 2,656 | 80.73% ±4.54 | +2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,656 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 185,023 | $1,586 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 104,373 | $706 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,293 | $192 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,005 | $170 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 430 | $87.53 | 2.5% | 10 | 6.2 | 1.62× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $84.27 | 2.6% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 259 | $73.54 | 3.4% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $72.06 | 3.6% | 16 | 10.9 | 1.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $60.01 | 5.0% | 14 | 18.4 | 0.76× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $53.62 | 6.2% | 34 | 25.3 | 1.34× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 32.3% | $6.45 | 25.2% | 543 | 859.0 | 0.63× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 32.3% | $6.44 | 25.1% | 832 | 858.9 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 32.3% | $6.41 | 25.0% | 860 | 858.6 | 1.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dreamsnightmarescase)

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.38 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.38 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.27 0.57x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.30 0.57x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.38 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.30 0.57x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.38 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.30 0.57x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

[MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.27 0.57x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $10.99 $6.38 0.58x 2026-11-11 18:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $10.99 | 75.41% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.21% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.31% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.65% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.64% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.66% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.74% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.76% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.12% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.25% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 76.58% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.52% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.27% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.6% covert 0.0% sunny 0.1% Covert 0.2% #ffd700 0.4% red 0.7% Ancient 1.0% classified 32.3% #d32ee6 32.3% pink 32.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.41 on average: an expected loss of $24.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt