---
title: "Dust 2 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dust 2 ($0.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 69.12% from 16 items with odds, observed 158.84% over 193 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Dust 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Dust 2

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2?window=all)

Price · $0.09

Advertised RTP · 69.12% · EV $0.06 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 158.84% · 193 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 23 openings · below min

7 days · 157.87% ±12.80 150 openings

30 days · 158.84% ±11.18 193 openings

since tracking started · 158.84% ±11.18 193 openings

68.5% 132.0% 195.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 69.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (147.67% – 170.02%, 193 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2?window=24h) | 23 | 160.19% ±34.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2?window=7d) | 150 | 157.87% ±12.8 | +13.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2) | 193 | 158.84% ±11.2 | +15.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust-2?window=all) | 193 | 158.84% ±11.2 | +15.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,088 | $1.15 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $0.43 | 10.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.30 | 16.4% | 20 | 6.5 | 3.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 14.2% | $0.09 | 21.5% | 74 | 27.5 | 2.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 13.8% | $0.07 | 15.1% | 0 | 26.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-well-worn) | 13.8% | $0.07 | 15.1% | 63 | 26.7 | 2.36× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) | 10.3% | $0.04 | 6.6% | 0 | 19.8 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 3.2% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 3.2% | 0 | 14.4 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.03 | 2.8% | 0 | 13.6 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.02 | 1.3% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 7.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 5.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | \<$0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dust-2)

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [krandy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/krandy) $0.09 $0.09 1.04x 2026-11-11 11:44 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-well-worn) [Серёга стальной](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A1%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%91%D0%B3%D0%B0%20%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9) $0.09 $0.07 0.76x 2026-11-11 07:41 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [v26331990](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/v26331990) $0.09 $0.09 1.03x 2026-11-11 07:33 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [v26331990](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/v26331990) $0.09 $0.09 1.03x 2026-11-11 07:33 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [v26331990](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/v26331990) $0.09 $0.09 1.03x 2026-11-11 07:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) [Alimka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Alimka) $0.09 $0.30 3.36x 2026-11-11 01:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-well-worn) [iwcqq](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/iwcqq) $0.09 $0.07 0.77x 2026-11-10 18:32 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-well-worn) [Gorneyslav](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Gorneyslav) $0.09 $0.07 0.78x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Gorneyslav](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Gorneyslav) $0.09 $0.10 1.09x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-well-worn) [Gorneyslav](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Gorneyslav) $0.09 $0.07 0.78x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.09 | 69.12% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.09 | 68.68% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.09 | 68.87% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.09 | 69.07% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.09 | 69.44% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.42% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.46% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.38% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.09 | 69.48% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.09 | 69.82% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.09 | 69.82% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.09 | 69.84% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.96% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.86% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.09 | 69.82% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.90% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.93% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.96% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.98% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.09 | 70.11% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 69.95% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.09 | 69.82% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.09 | 70.27% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.09 | 70.11% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.19% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.09 | 69.85% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.09 | 70.02% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.09 | 69.97% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.09 | 70.01% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.09 | 69.79% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 13.8% classified 0.1% Mythical 1.4% Rare 3.4% milspec 14.2% Uncommon 13.8% industrial 32.2% consumer 21.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 69.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $69.12 on average: an expected loss of $30.88 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt