---
title: "Dust case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dust ($26.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.82% from 8 items with odds, observed 110.16% over 14 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Dust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Dust

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust?window=all)

Price · $26.99

Advertised RTP · 76.82% · EV $20.73 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 110.16% · 14 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 43.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 13 openings · below min

30 days · 14 openings · below min

since tracking started · 14 openings · below min

46.0% 149.3% 252.5%

**Small sample.** 14 openings and 5.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust?window=24h) | 2 | 149.20% ±102.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust?window=7d) | 13 | 109.01% ±38.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust) | 14 | 110.16% ±36.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust?window=all) | 14 | 110.16% ±36.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 11,476 | $559 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $131 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Copperhead (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $96.31 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $76.23 | 9.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [P2000 \| Scorpion (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-minimal-wear) | 11.1% | $40.66 | 21.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 27.8% | $17.86 | 24.0% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.54× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-field-tested) | 28.3% | $12.70 | 17.3% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 28.1% | $12.27 | 16.6% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dust)

[P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-minimal-wear) [ww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ww) $26.99 $40.66 1.51x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC

[P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-minimal-wear) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $26.99 $39.88 1.48x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) [nmm45g!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nmm45g!) $26.99 $18.61 0.69x 2026-11-09 14:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $18.75 0.69x 2026-11-09 11:04 UTC

[P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-minimal-wear) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $48.32 1.79x 2026-11-09 10:40 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $18.81 0.70x 2026-11-09 10:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $18.77 0.70x 2026-11-09 09:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $26.99 $18.77 0.70x 2026-11-09 09:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) [KpL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/KpL) $26.99 $18.79 0.70x 2026-11-08 16:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) [Vincent Fabron](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Vincent%20Fabron) $26.99 $20.71 0.77x 2026-11-07 11:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $26.99 | 76.82% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $26.99 | 76.62% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.45% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.42% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.74% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $26.99 | 77.07% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.06% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.04% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.11% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.18% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $26.99 | 77.58% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.62% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.58% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.55% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.67% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $26.99 | 78.01% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $26.99 | 78.03% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.92% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.71% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% mil spec 3.2% milspec 1.4% restricted 38.9% #87c7ff 28.3% industrial 28.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.82 on average: an expected loss of $23.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt