---
title: "CS2 Dust 2 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 Dust 2 ($9.49) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.53% from 48 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS2 Dust 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS2 Dust 2

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2?window=all)

Price · $9.49

Advertised RTP · 76.53% · EV $7.26 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/dust2cs2?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 163,732 | $456 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 125,348 | $328 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81,167 | $243 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 64,594 | $216 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60,035 | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 55,296 | $200 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 51,442 | $194 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 41,059 | $176 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 32,760 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 32,473 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 17,694 | $127 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 13,429 | $115 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,156 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 10,468 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,476 | $93.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 7,070 | $91.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,320 | $77.05 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,369 | $70.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,984 | $67.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 1,503 | $53.62 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 1,324 | $51.34 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,045 | $47.32 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 751 | $42.21 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 694 | $41.07 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 604 | $39.13 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 502 | $36.68 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 374 | $33.09 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 328 | $31.59 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 308 | $30.88 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 248 | $28.58 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $23.99 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $23.18 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $21.68 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $19.86 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $19.22 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $18.46 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $11.98 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $11.64 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $10.35 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $9.30 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8.71 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $5.19 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $5.18 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 10.1% | $4.48 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 10.2% | $4.11 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 10.2% | $3.71 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 10.0% | $3.37 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.61 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=dust2cs2)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $9.49 | 76.53% | 48 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $9.49 | 76.31% | 48 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $9.49 | 76.14% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $9.49 | 76.12% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $9.49 | 76.43% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $9.49 | 76.75% | 48 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.76% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.73% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.79% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $9.49 | 76.87% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $9.49 | 77.28% | 48 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $9.49 | 77.26% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $9.49 | 77.29% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $9.49 | 77.29% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $9.49 | 77.29% | 48 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.30% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.29% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.27% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.29% | 48 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.28% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $9.49 | 77.21% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.35% | 48 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $9.49 | 77.70% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $9.49 | 77.71% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.59% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.31% | 48 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.40% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $9.49 | 77.38% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $9.49 | 77.40% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% classified 12.8% sunny 0.0% red 0.3% extraordinary 0.0% pink 20.1% Covert 0.0% Ancient 0.3% mil spec 0.4% covert knife 0.1% gold 0.3% restricted 14.4% Legendary 30.0% Rare 4.5% violet 6.0% #d32ee6 10.2%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.53 on average: an expected loss of $23.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt