---
title: "eblvdez case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "eblvdez ($20.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.87% from 28 items with odds, observed 80.12% over 1,480 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [eblvdez](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · eblvdez

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez?window=all)

Price · $20.99

Advertised RTP · 73.87% · EV $15.51 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.12% · 1,480 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64 openings · below min

7 days · 80.23% ±4.19 1,385 openings

30 days · 80.12% ±4.06 1,480 openings

since tracking started · 80.12% ±4.06 1,480 openings

59.0% 79.0% 99.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.05% – 84.18%, 1,480 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez?window=24h) | 64 | 78.96% ±19.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez?window=7d) | 1,385 | 80.23% ±4.19 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez) | 1,480 | 80.12% ±4.06 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/eblvdez?window=all) | 1,480 | 80.12% ±4.06 | +2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,481 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,799 | $791 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,534 | $592 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 9,151 | $478 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 7,885 | $335 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,769 | $277 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 6,369 | $261 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 2,771 | $156 | 0.4% | 5 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 1,649 | $125 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,546 | $122 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 1,277 | $113 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.72× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 753 | $92.49 | 0.8% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 737 | $91.77 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 410 | $74.01 | 1.2% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 392 | $72.83 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $52.68 | 2.1% | 11 | 9.2 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $50.73 | 2.2% | 5 | 10.1 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $32.87 | 4.4% | 41 | 30.9 | 1.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $29.95 | 5.0% | 41 | 38.4 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $23.98 | 6.5% | 83 | 62.1 | 1.34× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $19.91 | 7.6% | 90 | 87.9 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $19.63 | 7.7% | 64 | 90.0 | 0.71× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $15.93 | 8.5% | 118 | 123.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $15.01 | 8.7% | 122 | 132.6 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 11.1% | $11.97 | 8.6% | 149 | 164.7 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 11.3% | $11.63 | 8.5% | 116 | 168.0 | 0.69× |
| [Charm \| Glitter Bomb charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glitter-bomb) | 11.4% | $11.61 | 8.5% | 132 | 168.2 | 0.78× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 12.8% | $8.59 | 7.1% | 153 | 189.4 | 0.81× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 12.9% | $7.95 | 6.6% | 147 | 190.4 | 0.77× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=eblvdez)

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [RK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RK) $20.99 $11.55 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $20.99 $51.96 2.48x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[Charm | Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $20.99 $8.60 0.41x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $20.99 $19.81 0.94x 2026-11-11 11:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $20.99 $14.92 0.71x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $20.99 $125 5.97x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC

[Charm | Glitter Bomb charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glitter-bomb) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $20.99 $11.67 0.56x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $20.99 $11.66 0.56x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [Insite644](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Insite644) $20.99 $14.92 0.71x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $20.99 $14.92 0.71x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $20.99 | 73.87% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.71% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.70% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.98% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $20.99 | 74.30% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.31% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.29% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.36% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.42% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $20.99 | 74.85% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $20.99 | 74.81% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $20.99 | 74.80% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.76% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.89% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $20.99 | 75.22% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $20.99 | 75.23% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $20.99 | 75.14% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.92% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $20.99 | 74.90% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 1.5% classified 45.6% extraordinary 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.2% restricted 0.3% red 13.4% rare 15.4% pink 5.9% Legendary 17.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.87 on average: an expected loss of $26.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt