---
title: "eSports 2013 Winter Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "eSports 2013 Winter Case ($5.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.77% from 13 items with odds, observed 107.64% over 251 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [eSports 2013 Winter Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · eSports 2013 Winter Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013?window=all)

Price · $5.39

Advertised RTP · 76.77% · EV $4.14 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 107.64% · 251 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 35 openings · below min

7 days · 102.48% ±19.40 157 openings

30 days · 107.64% ±15.78 251 openings

since tracking started · 107.64% ±15.78 251 openings

73.5% 114.5% 155.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.87% – 123.42%, 251 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013?window=24h) | 35 | 114.51% ±40.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013?window=7d) | 157 | 102.48% ±19.4 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013) | 251 | 107.64% ±15.8 | +3.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/esports-winter-2013?window=all) | 251 | 107.64% ±15.8 | +3.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 252 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,945 | $541 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 9,549 | $265 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,053 | $72.55 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,647 | $67.85 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 1,855 | $58.18 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $27.93 | 2.6% | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $16.48 | 6.7% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $15.20 | 7.6% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $12.96 | 9.8% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 16.0% | $5.80 | 22.4% | 62 | 40.4 | 1.54× |
| [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 25.8% | $3.22 | 20.1% | 49 | 65.1 | 0.75× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) | 25.7% | $2.27 | 14.1% | 30 | 64.7 | 0.46× |
| [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $2.09 | 12.6% | 46 | 63.1 | 0.73× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=esports-winter-2013)

[P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) [М'ята ♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C'%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%B0%20%E2%99%A5) $5.39 $5.62 1.04x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-field-tested) [Молодой Пенсионе](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5) $5.39 $2.27 0.42x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [toyota](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/toyota) $5.39 $3.22 0.60x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [toyota](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/toyota) $5.39 $3.22 0.60x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $5.39 $5.98 1.11x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) [Warriorspeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Warriorspeek) $5.39 $13.17 2.44x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-minimal-wear) [Warriorspeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Warriorspeek) $5.39 $2.52 0.47x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-field-tested) [Warriorspeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Warriorspeek) $5.39 $53.36 9.90x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) [Warriorspeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Warriorspeek) $5.39 $5.98 1.11x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC

[P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) [Warriorspeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Warriorspeek) $5.39 $5.98 1.11x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $5.39 | 76.77% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $5.39 | 76.58% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.42% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.39% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.67% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $5.39 | 77.03% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.02% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.04% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.06% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.17% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.39 | 77.63% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.39 | 77.59% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.39 | 77.53% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.60% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.53% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.58% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.54% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.57% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.54% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.61% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.54% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.49% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.64% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $5.39 | 78.02% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $5.39 | 78.02% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.89% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.60% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.70% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.69% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.39 | 77.71% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% classified 0.4% covert knife 0.1% #d32ee6 1.7% mil spec 53.0% restricted 19.1% Mil Spec Grade 25.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.77 on average: an expected loss of $23.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt