---
title: "Fade mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fade mining ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 64.84% from 6 items with odds, observed 8865.04% over 2,013 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fade mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fade mining

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 64.84% · EV $0.90 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 8865.04% · 2,013 openings, odds method

Variance · 60.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 337 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 345 openings · below min

7 days · 8821.97% ±36.17 1,840 openings

30 days · 8865.04% ±34.64 2,013 openings

since tracking started · 8865.04% ±34.64 2,013 openings

64.0% 4522.3% 8980.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 65.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (8830.41% – 8899.68%, 2,013 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining?window=24h) | 345 | 8897.99% ±82.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining?window=7d) | 1,840 | 8821.97% ±36.2 | +474.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining) | 2,013 | 8865.04% ±34.6 | +497.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fademining?window=all) | 2,013 | 8865.04% ±34.6 | +497.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,013 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,369 | $327 | 6.8% | 54 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,987 | $196 | 10.9% | 165 | 1.0 | 162.88× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,972 | $195 | 11.0% | 146 | 1.0 | 143.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 565 | $122 | 23.9% | 477 | 3.6 | 133.81× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 265 | $93.59 | 39.2% | 1,162 | 7.6 | 152.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 99.3% | $0.07 | 8.2% | 0 | 1999.4 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.39 $344 247.2x 2026-11-06 22:47 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.39 $344 247.2x 2026-11-06 22:20 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.39 $344 247.2x 2026-11-06 22:16 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.39 $344 247.2x 2026-11-06 22:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.39 $344 247.2x 2026-11-06 22:14 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $1.39 $342 245.9x 2026-11-09 08:21 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [RicardoRPH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RicardoRPH) $1.39 $337 242.5x 2026-11-04 00:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [RicardoRPH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RicardoRPH) $1.39 $337 242.5x 2026-11-04 00:48 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [➳𝘽𝙖𝙙.𝘽𝙤𝙮ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9E%B3%F0%9D%98%BD%F0%9D%99%96%F0%9D%99%99.%F0%9D%98%BD%F0%9D%99%A4%F0%9D%99%AE%E3%83%84) $1.39 $337 242.4x 2026-11-03 22:41 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [GET25](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GET25) $1.39 $336 241.4x 2026-11-06 16:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=fademining)

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [Sh1psy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sh1psy) $1.39 $93.27 67.10x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [123123123](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/123123123) $1.39 $93.42 67.21x 2026-11-11 10:36 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [Tigriski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tigriski) $1.39 $122 87.63x 2026-11-11 08:56 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $1.39 $93.83 67.50x 2026-11-11 07:26 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [Obito](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Obito) $1.39 $129 92.63x 2026-11-11 06:40 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $1.39 $129 92.63x 2026-11-11 06:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $1.39 $93.99 67.62x 2026-11-11 06:08 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $1.39 $194 139.7x 2026-11-11 06:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [ИВАН БУДКО](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%98%D0%92%D0%90%D0%9D%20%D0%91%D0%A3%D0%94%D0%9A%D0%9E) $1.39 $94.15 67.73x 2026-11-11 05:43 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) [ИВАН БУДКО](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%98%D0%92%D0%90%D0%9D%20%D0%91%D0%A3%D0%94%D0%9A%D0%9E) $1.39 $195 140.5x 2026-11-11 05:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 64.84% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.66% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.65% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.92% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 65.25% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.25% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.17% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.24% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.35% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 65.63% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 65.62% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.72% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.70% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.70% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.63% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.73% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 66.05% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 66.01% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.92% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.67% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.75% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.74% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 65.78% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.39 | 65.71% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% industrial 99.3% best hit $344 (247.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 64.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $64.84 on average: an expected loss of $35.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt