---
title: "Falchion Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Falchion Case ($1.89) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.06% from 17 items with odds, observed 98.22% over 826 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Falchion Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Falchion Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion?window=all)

Price · $1.89

Advertised RTP · 76.06% · EV $1.44 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.22% · 826 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76 openings · below min

7 days · 99.77% ±14.74 561 openings

30 days · 98.22% ±12.21 826 openings

since tracking started · 98.22% ±12.21 826 openings

75.5% 157.5% 239.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.01% – 110.43%, 826 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion?window=24h) | 76 | 199.67% ±39.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion?window=7d) | 561 | 99.77% ±14.7 | +3.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion) | 826 | 98.22% ±12.2 | +3.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/falchion?window=all) | 826 | 98.22% ±12.2 | +3.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 826 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,938 | $195 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,926 | $184 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,361 | $87.82 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 8,705 | $67.72 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 8,022 | $57.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 7,793 | $54.62 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,572 | $44.54 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 4,997 | $35.81 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $8.83 | 3.8% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $4.27 | 11.9% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.26 | 11.9% | 29 | 33.2 | 0.87× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.04 | 12.7% | 39 | 37.3 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 18.4% | $1.07 | 13.7% | 42 | 152.3 | 0.28× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 18.3% | $1.02 | 13.0% | 124 | 151.3 | 0.82× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 17.3% | $0.84 | 10.1% | 113 | 142.8 | 0.79× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 16.9% | $0.80 | 9.4% | 117 | 140.0 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 15.8% | $0.70 | 7.7% | 46 | 130.1 | 0.35× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) [bigodesPT](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/bigodesPT) $1.89 $184 97.30x 2026-11-10 19:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=falchion)

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) [doctorbayard](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/doctorbayard) $1.89 $0.70 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) [doctorbayard](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/doctorbayard) $1.89 $0.80 0.42x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) [doctorbayard](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/doctorbayard) $1.89 $0.80 0.42x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.89 $0.82 0.43x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.89 $0.70 0.37x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) [SniG\_DP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SniG_DP) $1.89 $1.02 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) [،دنH.u.y.L.o.P.a.N. 2.0ال](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D8%8C%D8%AF%D9%86H.u.y.L.o.P.a.N.%202.0%D8%A7%D9%84) $1.89 $4.03 2.13x 2026-11-11 07:56 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [4ипырка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4%D0%B8%D0%BF%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.89 $0.85 0.45x 2026-11-11 02:06 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) [4ипырка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4%D0%B8%D0%BF%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.89 $0.80 0.42x 2026-11-11 02:05 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [4ипырка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4%D0%B8%D0%BF%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $1.89 $0.85 0.45x 2026-11-11 02:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.89 | 76.06% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.89 | 75.85% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.89 | 75.94% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.89 | 76.21% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.89 | 76.43% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.47% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.59% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.61% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.63% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.89 | 76.97% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.89 | 76.98% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.89 | 76.93% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.89 | 77.09% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.89 | 76.99% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.89 | 77.08% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.89 | 77.11% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.89 | 77.11% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.89 | 77.18% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.89 | 77.03% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.89 | 77.07% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.89 | 76.97% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.89 | 77.15% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.89 | 77.46% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.89 | 77.49% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.89 | 77.40% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.89 | 77.16% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.89 | 77.22% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.89 | 77.19% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.89 | 77.17% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.89 | 77.08% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.0% classified 9.2% restricted 56.6% milspec 18.4% mil spec 15.8% best hit $184 (97.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.06 on average: an expected loss of $23.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt