---
title: "Fall Guys case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fall Guys ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.85% from 17 items with odds, observed 75.34% over 33.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fall Guys](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fall Guys

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 75.85% · EV $1.05 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.34% · 33.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.81% ±4.45 2,951 openings

7 days · 74.82% ±1.60 25.9K openings

30 days · 75.34% ±1.43 33.5K openings

since tracking started · 75.34% ±1.43 33.5K openings

72.5% 77.8% 83.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys?window=24h) | 2,951 | 77.81% ±4.45 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys?window=7d) | 25.9K | 74.82% ±1.60 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys) | 33.5K | 75.34% ±1.43 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fallguys?window=all) | 33.5K | 75.34% ±1.43 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 497 | $28.41 | 5.4% | 63 | 67.5 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 491 | $20.17 | 3.9% | 71 | 68.3 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 459 | $11.87 | 2.5% | 57 | 73.1 | 0.78× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 406 | $8.64 | 2.0% | 77 | 82.5 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 290 | $5.84 | 1.9% | 76 | 115.7 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 171 | $4.15 | 2.3% | 148 | 196.4 | 0.75× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $2.50 | 4.1% | 904 | 572.8 | 1.58× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $2.36 | 4.4% | 231 | 656.9 | 0.35× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.66 | 6.5% | 1,073 | 1393.1 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.04 | 8.8% | 2,662 | 2987.2 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.96 | 8.9% | 3,317 | 3290.3 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 10.2% | $0.92 | 8.9% | 3,888 | 3420.9 | 1.14× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.87 | 8.9% | 4,408 | 3632.4 | 1.21× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.84 | 8.8% | 3,751 | 3714.1 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Buns charm · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-buns) | 13.0% | $0.63 | 7.8% | 4,511 | 4372.2 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 13.1% | $0.62 | 7.7% | 7,208 | 4394.4 | 1.64× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 13.4% | $0.56 | 7.1% | 2 | 4484.4 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=fallguys)

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) [Kpes1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kpes1k) $1.39 $0.87 0.63x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [Mr. Fish](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mr.%20Fish) $1.39 $0.96 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Buns charm · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-buns) [shpingaleti lopnuli](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shpingaleti%20lopnuli) $1.39 $0.63 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Buns charm · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-buns) [shpingaleti lopnuli](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shpingaleti%20lopnuli) $1.39 $0.63 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [pokazeys](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pokazeys) $1.39 $0.56 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [pokazeys](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pokazeys) $1.39 $0.96 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [pokazeys](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pokazeys) $1.39 $1.04 0.75x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Buns charm · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-buns) [pokazeys](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pokazeys) $1.39 $0.63 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [pokazeys](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pokazeys) $1.39 $0.84 0.60x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

[AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-field-tested) [pokazeys](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pokazeys) $1.39 $1.66 1.19x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 75.85% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 75.71% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.64% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.52% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.86% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 76.21% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.18% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.12% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.20% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.24% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 76.65% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 76.78% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 76.75% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 76.66% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 76.66% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 76.73% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.63% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.62% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.63% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.61% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.74% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.72% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.71% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 77.06% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 77.12% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 77.14% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.78% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.75% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.79% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 76.81% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% pink 0.2% classified 2.2% rare 0.2% #d32ce6 0.3% Legendary 0.6% #8847ff 25.0% violet 48.4% Mythical 9.8% restricted 13.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.85 on average: an expected loss of $24.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt