---
title: "Свирепый оборотень case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Свирепый оборотень ($2.69) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.73% from 29 items with odds, observed 78.94% over 35.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Свирепый оборотень](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Свирепый оборотень

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 76.73% · EV $2.06 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.94% · 35.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 37.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.97% ±2.04 5,637 openings

7 days · 79.03% ±0.92 29.7K openings

30 days · 78.94% ±0.85 35.2K openings

since tracking started · 78.94% ±0.85 35.2K openings

73.5% 77.0% 80.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.09% – 79.79%, 35,164 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf?window=24h) | 5,637 | 75.97% ±2.04 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf?window=7d) | 29.7K | 79.03% ±0.92 | +3.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf) | 35.2K | 78.94% ±0.85 | +3.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/feralwerewolf?window=all) | 35.2K | 78.94% ±0.85 | +3.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,820 | $94.69 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 9,736 | $83.20 | 0.4% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,525 | $67.85 | 0.3% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.62× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 9,072 | $53.40 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 8,768 | $48.04 | 0.3% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,165 | $41.07 | 0.2% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 5,962 | $28.41 | 0.2% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.36× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 4,469 | $23.22 | 0.3% | 14 | 7.9 | 1.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,098 | $19.06 | 0.3% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 2,058 | $15.85 | 0.4% | 35 | 17.1 | 2.05× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 2,027 | $15.74 | 0.4% | 8 | 17.4 | 0.46× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 1,058 | $12.16 | 0.6% | 64 | 33.3 | 1.92× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 576 | $9.71 | 0.8% | 72 | 61.1 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 257 | $7.26 | 1.4% | 181 | 136.8 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 230 | $6.97 | 1.5% | 288 | 153.1 | 1.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 179 | $6.37 | 1.7% | 37 | 196.5 | 0.19× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $4.73 | 2.9% | 185 | 439.8 | 0.42× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $3.94 | 3.8% | 440 | 706.4 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $3.49 | 4.6% | 1,156 | 954.7 | 1.21× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.58 | 6.7% | 1,831 | 1891.7 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.52 | 6.9% | 706 | 1981.4 | 0.36× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.50 | 6.9% | 2,611 | 2005.4 | 1.30× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.36 | 7.4% | 1,030 | 2263.9 | 0.45× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $2.35 | 7.3% | 1,778 | 2268.7 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.34 | 7.4% | 2,341 | 2291.4 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 11.1% | $1.70 | 9.1% | 3,221 | 3898.0 | 0.83× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 13.5% | $1.44 | 9.4% | 3,792 | 4742.5 | 0.80× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-field-tested) | 15.2% | $1.25 | 9.2% | 3,884 | 5357.2 | 0.73× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 16.3% | $1.13 | 8.9% | 3,992 | 5724.5 | 0.70× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=feralwerewolf)

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-field-tested) [Steve Blowjobs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Steve%20Blowjobs) $2.69 $1.25 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [77](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/77) $2.69 $1.41 0.52x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-field-tested) [sn1em](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sn1em) $2.69 $1.25 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) [sn1em](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sn1em) $2.69 $1.66 0.62x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) [pedrin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/pedrin) $2.69 $3.96 1.47x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) [sn1em](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sn1em) $2.69 $1.66 0.62x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) [sn1em](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sn1em) $2.69 $4.65 1.73x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-well-worn) [sn1em](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sn1em) $2.69 $2.07 0.77x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) [sL1m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sL1m) $2.69 $3.47 1.29x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) [s1vka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/s1vka) $2.69 $1.13 0.42x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.69 | 76.73% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.54% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.36% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.35% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.60% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.94% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.02% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.43% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.58% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.45% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 77.95% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 77.91% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.83% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.64% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 15.2% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 8.4% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% rare 0.0% pink 1.1% Legendary 2.0% Classified 2.7% restricted 32.7% violet 12.1% #8847ff 19.2% Mythical 6.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.73 on average: an expected loss of $23.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt