---
title: "Ferrari case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ferrari ($1.89) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.07% from 30 items with odds, observed 75.77% over 4,244 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Ferrari](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Ferrari

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari?window=all)

Price · $1.89

Advertised RTP · 76.07% · EV $1.44 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.77% · 4,244 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.68% ±5.05 1,651 openings

7 days · 75.77% ±3.14 4,244 openings

30 days · 75.77% ±3.14 4,244 openings

since tracking started · 75.77% ±3.14 4,244 openings

70.0% 75.8% 81.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari?window=24h) | 1,651 | 75.68% ±5.05 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari?window=7d) | 4,244 | 75.77% ±3.14 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari) | 4,244 | 75.77% ±3.14 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/ferrari?window=all) | 4,244 | 75.77% ±3.14 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,742 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,960 | $116 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-field-tested) | 1 in 9,929 | $95.04 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 9,810 | $68.27 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,677 | $56.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 9,333 | $44.15 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 8,213 | $30.45 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 6,927 | $24.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 5,208 | $18.80 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 4,623 | $17.39 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $12.25 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,148 | $11.83 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,480 | $10.15 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 911 | $8.42 | 0.6% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 692 | $7.60 | 0.8% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 375 | $6.09 | 1.1% | 8 | 12.6 | 0.63× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 298 | $5.60 | 1.3% | 11 | 15.9 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $4.27 | 2.1% | 6 | 33.7 | 0.18× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $4.26 | 2.1% | 27 | 33.8 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $3.58 | 2.8% | 52 | 54.0 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.32 | 5.4% | 143 | 157.6 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.92 | 6.7% | 109 | 236.6 | 0.46× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.88 | 6.9% | 318 | 248.7 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.75 | 7.3% | 125 | 283.8 | 0.44× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.71 | 7.5% | 293 | 297.7 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.71 | 7.5% | 298 | 297.1 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 10.3% | $1.25 | 9.0% | 301 | 489.3 | 0.62× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 10.5% | $1.23 | 9.0% | 433 | 498.3 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 13.4% | $0.97 | 9.0% | 579 | 635.9 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 14.4% | $0.87 | 8.7% | 591 | 680.8 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 15.6% | $0.68 | 7.4% | 733 | 741.1 | 0.99× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=ferrari)

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $1.89 $1.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $1.89 $1.94 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $1.89 $1.71 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $1.89 $0.76 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $1.89 $0.97 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [piw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/piw) $1.89 $0.76 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) [shtanga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/shtanga) $1.89 $1.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) [business only](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/business%20only) $1.89 $10.11 5.35x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [business only](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/business%20only) $1.89 $0.97 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [business only](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/business%20only) $1.89 $1.74 0.92x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.89 | 76.07% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.89 | 75.95% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.89 | 75.93% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.89 | 76.15% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.89 | 76.53% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.51% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.54% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.58% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.89 | 76.61% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.89 | 77.03% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.89 | 77.11% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.89 | 77.01% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.89 | 77.01% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% epic 0.0% Immortal 0.0% classified 2.1% Ancient 0.0% restricted 29.0% pink 0.1% violet 10.8% #8847ff 17.7% uncommon 5.2% Rare 6.0% Mythical 29.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.07 on average: an expected loss of $23.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt