---
title: "Fever Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fever Case ($2.59) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.49% from 23 items with odds, observed 79.56% over 1,371 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Fever Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Fever Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase?window=all)

Price · $2.59

Advertised RTP · 75.49% · EV $1.96 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.56% · 1,371 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 29 openings · below min

7 days · 80.39% ±12.08 1,241 openings

30 days · 79.56% ±11.48 1,371 openings

since tracking started · 79.56% ±11.48 1,371 openings

15.5% 94.3% 173.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase?window=24h) | 29 | 94.21% ±78.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase?window=7d) | 1,241 | 80.39% ±12.1 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase) | 1,371 | 79.56% ±11.5 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/fevercase?window=all) | 1,371 | 79.56% ±11.5 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,395 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,885 | $319 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,597 | $208 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,476 | $189 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,195 | $119 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 7,010 | $95.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 6,903 | $94.23 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 3,566 | $59.18 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 3,413 | $57.85 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,067 | $45.94 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,530 | $40.63 | 1.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 16.2% | $4.63 | 38.2% | 266 | 225.3 | 1.18× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 17.0% | $4.48 | 38.9% | 176 | 236.7 | 0.74× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 13.2% | $0.48 | 3.2% | 164 | 183.7 | 0.89× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) | 13.1% | $0.47 | 3.2% | 149 | 182.4 | 0.82× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.45 | 2.9% | 166 | 175.0 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 12.3% | $0.44 | 2.8% | 150 | 172.2 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 55.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 9 | 34.7 | 0.26× |
| [XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 16 | 31.0 | 0.52× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 24 | 27.1 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 8 | 24.8 | 0.32× |
| [MAG-7 \| Resupply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 6 | 24.0 | 0.25× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 9 | 19.2 | 0.47× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=fevercase)

[Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $2.59 $0.46 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) [Kutaiski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kutaiski) $2.59 $0.45 0.17x 2026-11-11 11:34 UTC

[Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) [،دنH.u.y.L.o.P.a.N. 2.0ال](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D8%8C%D8%AF%D9%86H.u.y.L.o.P.a.N.%202.0%D8%A7%D9%84) $2.59 $0.45 0.17x 2026-11-11 07:56 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) [muxOo აპე](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/muxOo%20%E1%83%90%E1%83%9E%E1%83%94) $2.59 $0.47 0.18x 2026-11-11 06:41 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $2.59 $0.47 0.18x 2026-11-11 06:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $2.59 $4.64 1.79x 2026-11-11 06:29 UTC

[P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $2.59 $0.48 0.18x 2026-11-11 06:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $2.59 $4.64 1.79x 2026-11-11 06:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [\[GRS\] Capo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%5BGRS%5D%20Capo) $2.59 $4.64 1.79x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) [131216](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/131216) $2.59 $0.45 0.17x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.59 | 75.49% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.34% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.30% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.63% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.59 | 75.92% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.92% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.94% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.96% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.59 | 76.09% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.59 | 76.44% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.59 | 76.45% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.59 | 76.39% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.44% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.44% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.46% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.48% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.43% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.43% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.45% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.39% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.59 | 76.85% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.59 | 76.88% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.80% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.46% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.53% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.54% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.59 | 76.54% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.59 | 76.51% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% gold 0.1% rare 0.0% sunny 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Ancient 0.1% pink 33.1% violet 38.6% Mythical 12.5% #4b69ff 11.6% blue 2.5% milspec 1.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.49 on average: an expected loss of $24.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt